New Minimum Wage Poses Risk To Job Growth ~ United Capital

Nigeria’s Q3-18 Job Report: Unemployment rate worsens, are Nigerians more Miserable?
This week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published its long-awaited quarterly unemployment and underemployment report for Q4-17 to Q3-18.
According to the report, the unemployment rate in Nigeria jumped from 18.8 percent in Q3-17 to 23.1 percent in Q3-18.
This is as the total number of people classified as unemployed in Q3-18 spiked by 30.8 percent y/y, faster than growth in the size of the total labour force which was up 6.3 percent y/y to 90.5 million.
Notably, despite the worsening state of unemployment, Misery Index (inflation rate + unemployment rate) improved 0.5 percent from 34.8 percent in Q3-17 to 34.3 percent in Q3-18, thanks to the inflation rate which moderated from 16.0 percent in Q1-17 to 11.2 percent in Q3-18.
If underemployment is factored in, the misery index would be 54.4 percent as at Q3-18 from 56.0 percent in Q3-17.
We reiterate the need to prioritize job creation beyond aggregate GDP growth as a measure of economic welfare and overall improvement in the economy.
In terms of outlook, we believe a potential implementation of the 30,000 naira national minimum wage poses further risk to job growth in Nigeria, especially if structural issues are left unfixed.