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Thursday, 10 September 2015

Nigerian naira seen weaker, while Ghana's cedi to hold firm

Nigeria's naira was expected to face pressure on the parallel market after JP Morgan said it was removing Nigerian debt from its influential emerging markets bond index by the end of October, forcing fund managers to sell.

Naira and dollar

It traded at 223.5 to the dollar on the parallel market on Thursday, against 220 to the dollar last week.
It closed at 197 to the dollar on the interbank market, the same level it was pegged in February by the central bank in its bid to curb speculation and rapid depreciation.
"The parallel market exchange rate, which stabilised somewhat in recent weeks as the central bank provided dollar
liquidity to some outlets, could well depreciate on increased forex demand stemming from heightened risk and investor concern," NKC African Economics said in a research note.
GHANA
Ghana's cedi is expected to be steady and could see a rally on expected hard currency inflows from cocoa and Eurobond loans this month.
The local unit, which rebounded strongly in July after slumping nearly 30 percent in the first half of the year, has since shed most of the gains. It traded at 3.9500 at 1137 GMT on Thursday compared to 3.7000 a week ago.
Industry regulator Cocobod is set to sign a $1.8 billion loan in Paris next week for the 2015/16 crop purchases. Ghana also plans to issue a fourth Eurobond of up to $1.5 billion in late September for debt restructuring and budget financing.
"We expect the local currency to be fairly stable with marginal movements around the 4.0 mark. However, expectations of dollar inflows into the market this month could reduce buy-and-hold trades in the dollar in the short term," Joseph Biggles Amponsah, analyst at the Accra-based Dortis Research said.

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