The NBS recently released Nigeria’s trade report for Q3 - 2017, wherein total Imports stood at N2.3trn compared to total exports which stood at 3.6 trillion naira. 
At this point, the trade balance stands at a robust 1.2 trillion naira, a 141.8 percent increase from the preceding quarter and its highest level since the 2014 oil price slump.
A major driver of this impressive performance is the spike in crude oil exports (which accounts for a whopping 83.2 percent of total exports).
A major driver of this impressive performance is the spike in crude oil exports (which accounts for a whopping 83.2 percent of total exports).
With oil prices little changed q/q (3 percent increase to an average of $52.2 bpd in Q3 - 2017), the bulk of the gains in the trade balance is underpinned by a 7.2 percent increase in crude oil production (from 1.5mb/d in Q2 - 2017 to .16mb/d in Q3 - 2017).
Looking through year-end and into 2018, we base our perspectives on the outlook of trade balance on two themes.
Looking through year-end and into 2018, we base our perspectives on the outlook of trade balance on two themes.
Firstly, oil production is set to increase by another c. 7.0 percent in Q4-2017, even as oil prices edge higher by a projected 15 percent to an average of $60.5 bpd by Q4. Secondly, as global growth is getting increasingly broad-based, the fastest world trade since the global financial crisis is underway. Therefore, we expect the momentum in trade balance to be sustained, albeit at a more moderating pace.
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