Nigeria chequered history in democratic experiment has been marred by attempts by politicians to manipulate the electoral process to favour their interest. The struggle for power among the political elites has resulted in many manoeuvring against the wishes of the masses in one way or the other in recent time.
The early morning announcement of a shift in the dates of elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) few hours before the commencement of the presidential and senatorial election on Saturday morning came as a rude shock to many Nigerians.
Although, there have been rumours and counterclaims on move to shift the election date by the electoral body in the last few days. The main opposition had flagged the move in many of its campaign rallies and warned the ruling party and the electoral body not to dare the move.
However, the electoral body has assured the nation and the international community of its readiness to go ahead with the election.
Men and materials have been deployed to various polling units across the country by the electoral body, why election monitoring and observer groups both local and foreign have moved to locations in readiness for action.
Many Schools have been closed down as a result of the conduct of the election while many people have also travelled to their villages to enable them to carry out their civic duties.
Also not left out are those who have postponed their functions earlier scheduled for the election day and business that have to close down for the purpose of the election.
Alas, the shift in the election date has now put in jeopardy many activities that have been shifted to the new date of the election. People who have shifted their weddings, travel arrangements and other major functions to the new date of February 23 and March 9, will have to again reschedule their programme for another date.
However, looking into history in the last eight years, the electoral body has shifted election at the last minutes for one reason or the other.
In 2011, voting had actually started in some parts of the country when INEC suddenly announced that the election had been shifted by two days!
The national assembly elections were scheduled for April 2, 2011, and had commenced smoothly in some states, especially in Lagos, Kaduna, Kebbi, Delta, Zamfara and Enugu when Professor Attahiru Jega, the then chairman of INEC, announced the postponement. His reason for the shift was as a result of the late deployment of electoral materials in some states.
Also, four years after, the same Jega shifted the elections date again, this time by six weeks following pressure from the security chiefs who claimed they needed more time to “diminish Boko Haram."
The past postponements of elections in Africa's biggest economy have met with outrage from the public who suspected the unseen hands of the government in power as the real reason for the shift.
In 2015, the government of President Goodluck Jonathan has become unpopular and there was a massive campaign by many Nigerians to chase him out of power through the ballot.
Smelling defeat, the government had deployed all measures and machination to influence a shift in the election date to enable it to make some strategic move to appease the populace and reverse the ugly trend.
In spite of the shift in date of the election, the government of President Jonathan still suffered ignoble defeat at the election, paving way for President Mohammadu Buhari, who is now asking for a second term from the electorate.
The February 16 postponement would be the third of such in the recent history of the country electoral experience and based on almost same logistic reason or need to carry out certain adjustment to enable a credible election.
The question being asked by the people is that was INEC not aware of the need to conduct elections every four years and why is the shoddy preparation for the election?
From all indication, one will not rule out behind the scene involvement of politicians in the latest shift in the election date.
Poll and analysts have predicted a tight race between the incumbent, President Buhari and the main challenger, Atiku Abubakar and it is possible that both would have been making move to outdo each other through whatever means.
The ruling APC is said to be jittery of losing the election and was using all the power at its disposal to ensure victory by all means at the election. The shift in election date could be one of the plans by the government to destabilise the plans of the opposition in whatever means and gain some advantage over them.
Most political parties must have deployed logistic to locations and mobilized its members across the country in readiness for the election, the shift would definitely upset whatever plans they have put in place to support their position.
The postponement could be a strategic move by the ruling party to put the opposition under financial pressure to undermine its capacity and put it at a disadvantage in the long run. The government has more access to finance and could have had prior knowledge of the plan to shift the election, this could have ensured that it would have taken measures to conserve its own resources for the new date
However, there are other suggestions that the shift in the election could have been instigated by the opposition which have been flying the kits for many days before the election date. This could be one of its strategies to discredit the result of the election in case it did not favour its position.
The ruling party presidential campaign spokesman, Festus Keyamu in a swift reaction to the shift in election date has pointed accusing fingers to the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) as being behind the INEC action.
Both sides have been pointing accusing fingers to one another and this is not unexpected considering the tense situation in the country and struggle to outdo one another by the political parties.
While the people are also angry at the last minutes shift in the election date because of its implications on their economies and personal well being, it is obvious that the INEC reason for the postponement remains suspect in the eyes of many Nigerians and foreign observers.
In the coming days, it will become clearer the real reason behind the shift in the election date beyond the earlier reasons adduced by the INEC.
But one thing is clear, the two main political groups will in the days to ahead continue to trade blames on the shift and would have to dip into their bag of propaganda to convince or confuse their supporters that they are not truly behind the election postponement.
Would the shift in the election date materially affect the outcome of the election? Probably, to a large extent, the shift will either discourage some people from voting at the end of the day while those who are behind the shift could have sufficient time to perfect their rigging plan in aid of their success at the election.
However, based on history the postponement in the election of 2015 did not help the ruling party to win the election. Reason for this is that many people have made up their minds who to vote for irrespective of the manoeuvring by the political gladiators. What happened in the 2015 election is that probably the shift helped to reduce the margin of votes cast against the then ruling party.
If anything, the shift this time around, which is shorter than the previous one in 2015 may help swing the pendulum in the direction of the ruling party because many of those who have determined to vote against it might have been discouraged and could stay away in anger at the new date. The shift could also help the politicians to perfect their rigging plans and ensure that the election favours them one way or the other.
Another suggestion is that the shift could actually help the main opposition to gain more sympathy among the populace who would have seen the postponement as a gimmick by the ruling party to deprive the opposition of victory in the election.
Whichever way the pendulum swing in the coming days, the electoral body will have to do more to convince the people of its good intention and put in place plans to forestall manipulation by politicians.
How safe are the election materials already deployed to locations across the country and what move has been made by the INEC to secure those sensitive materials from falling into wrong hands would be the next area of concern to many keen observers of the process.
If at the end of the day, the election process is seen to be free, fair and credible, the outcome will be received and accepted by the people as representing the wish of the people, otherwise, the result will be a subject of dispute and that could cause a major crisis across the country.
Nigerians and all lover of democracy should, therefore, be on the lookout for possible attempt to manipulate the system in favour of any political party and ensure that the nation's democratic future is protected against those who are desperate for power.
All hands must be on deck to compel the electoral body to remain independent and neutral in the conduct of the election so as to allow the will of the people to come to pass.
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