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Friday 3 November 2017

October 2017 PMI: Yet another signal of positive Q3 GDP -United Capital

The CBN published its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey for October earlier, indicating an expansion in both the Non-Manufacturing and Manufacturing PMI for the 6th and 7th consecutive months. Image result for nigeria gdp q2 2017

However, the Manufacturing PMI slowed to 55 points compared to the previous month's 55.3pts while the Non-Manufacturing PMI expanded further to 55.3pts (previously 54.9 points), amid sustained growth across sub-sectors.
The Manufacturing PMI (55pts) slowed amid a weakened expansion in 6 of the 16 sub-sectors and declines recorded by Cement (46.7pts), Computer & electronic products (30.0pts) and Transportation equipment (48.8pts) sub-sectors which expanded in September. Contrariwise, at 55.3 index points. Save for declines in Construction; Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; and Professional, Scientific & Technical activities, other activities expanded. 
Accordingly, all 4 sub-indices sustained uptrend with Business Activity (57.5pts), Inventories (53.4pts) and New orders level (55.7pts) growing at a faster rate while Employment level (54.4pts) grew slower.
The PMI is strongly correlated with GDP; hence the October readings foreshadow yet another positive Q3 growth numbers. The consistent increase in the Non-Manufacturing PMI is worthy of note, suggesting that the Services sector, which remained in recession in Q2-17, may be turning the corner gradually. The slowdown in the manufacturing PMI is however surprising considering the improvement witnessed in the broader economy this past month.

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