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Thursday 26 September 2013

Nigerian naira seen trading within narrow range next week


   The Kenyan shilling is expected to strengthen next week due to dollar inflows from offshore investors who took part in a bond auction on Wednesday. Tanzania's shilling is likely to rise further amid a slowdown in importer demand for hard currency.  

NIGERIA
   The naira is seen trading within a narrow range next week and should receive support from dollar sales by oil companies and direct sales to banks by the central bank.
   The local unit was trading around 161.1 to the dollar at 1112 GMT, little changed from a week ago.

Nigerian naira and US dollar
   The naira had traded around its strongest level in three months early this week on dollar sales by state-owned energy company NNPC. Last week's statement by the U.S. Federal Reserve suggesting it was in no rush to scale back its monetary stimulus also helped the unit.
   
   KENYA
   Kenya's shilling  is expected to firm in the days ahead, helped by dollar inflows from foreign investors who participated in a 12-year infrastructure bond sale this week.
   Payments for the bond, which was oversubscribed, are due on Monday.
   The shilling was posted at 86.90/87.00 per dollar by 1305 GMT, stronger than last Thursday's close of 87.35/45.
   John Muli, a trader at African Banking Corporation, said the shilling could move below 87.00 due to tight liquidity, which is making it difficult for banks to hold long dollar positions.
   Tighter shilling supply due to companies paying taxes helped the currency bounce back swiftly from some weakness seen during a four-day siege of a Nairobi shopping mall which killed at least 67 people. Somali militant group al Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
   
   TANZANIA
   Tanzania's shilling is expected to extend its rally against the dollar next week.
   Traders in Tanzania's commercial capital Dar es Salaam quoted the shilling at 1,607/1,617 to the dollar on Thursday, stronger than 1,609/1,620 a week ago.
   "The shilling has continued to strengthen this week and will gain further ground next week due to increased inflows from corporate customers and a slowdown in demand from oil importers," said Emmanuel Mwasanguti, a dealer at CRDB Bank.
   "Most corporate clients are now converting their dollars into shillings due to month-end commitments in local currency for salary and tax payments."
   Market participants said the shilling was expected to trade in a tight 1,600-1,610 range over the coming days.
   "The shilling could breach a new level and trade below 1,600 levels if its current rally against the dollar is extended for the next two to three weeks," said another trader.
   UGANDA
   Uganda's shilling <UGX=> is expected to be on the back foot in the days ahead, undermined by strong appetite for hard currency from commercial banks building long dollar positions in anticipation of a surge in importer demand.
   At 1115 GMT commercial banks in Kampala quoted the currency of Africa's largest coffee exporter at 2,568/2,573, weaker than last Thursday's close of 2,557/2,562.
   "Banks are anticipating strong demand from importers in the coming weeks so they're building long dollar positions and I expect this to keep the local unit under pressure," said Brenda Akumu, a trader at KCB Uganda.  
   She said the currency would likely trade between a support level of 2,560 and a resistance level of 2,590 over the next week. Much of the demand pressure is seen coming from importers looking to pay for goods shipments for year-end holiday shoppers.
   
 

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