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Wednesday, 23 August 2017

The future of foreign portfolio investment and FX in Nigeria -United Capital

Foreigners were the net sellers of Nigerian stocks for most of 2014, 2015 and the beginning of 2016. Nevertheless, the pace of outflows started to reverse in June 2016, following the official devaluation of the naira. Image result for dollars

Foreigners are now plying back into the market at record levels, with the most recent buying wave spurred by the introduction of the market friendly investors and Exporters FX window (I & E window). So what's our take on future foreign portfolio investments?
If history is any indication of future performance, then we can say that the outlook of foreign portfolio investments would be tied to Nigeria's economic health and more importantly, the foreign exchange. According to Bloomberg, 
"Nigeria's foreign-exchange market remains more opaque than those in other African countries". Foreign investors, despite being more at ease since the introduction of the I & E window, would continue to root for a unified exchange-rate system that is predominantly driven by market forces, In other words, a complete floating of the naira! 
However, for Nigerian monetary authorities looking to consolidate on some of the recent gains, this may be a premature action.

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