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Wednesday, 2 November 2016

Concerns over possible win by Trump push up Sterling above $1.23 for first time in 3 weeks

The pound jumped to its highest in three weeks against a broadly weaker dollar on Wednesday as the greenback suffered from worries that Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidential election.

Sterling climbed after news that London's High Court will deliver its verdict on Thursday on whether British parliament as a whole - rather than just the ruling Conservative government - must invoke Article 50, which will begin the formal process of leaving the European Union.
It rose further during Prime Minister Theresa May's weekly questions from parliament, at which she said government would do its best to secure a good deal for the agriculture sector when Britain leaves the EU.
Some analysts said it would be hard to imagine a scenario in which MPs would vote against triggering Brexit, even if Britain's High Court rules that triggering Article 50 requires parliamentary approval on Thursday.
"While we think GBP would rally on such a headline, we would have to remember Article 50 could still pass a Commons vote," Nomura strategist Jordan Rochester said in a note.
"But with the government refusing to show its full hand before reaching the negotiation table, the UK's demands are likely to remain vague and optimistic."
The currency rose as much as 0.8 percent to $1.2350, its highest since Oct. 10.
It has climbed 1.2 percent this week, boosted on Monday by news that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will extend his tenure to 2019.
Carney's decision eased concern about threats to the Bank's independence in an uncertain political environment, where worries over a "hard" UK exit from Europe's single market have sent sterling tumbling.
"Brexit is the primary driving force at the moment," said Richard Wiltshire, chief FX broker at ETX capital. "Any rallies in sterling are capped by the fear of the unknown."
In other Brexit news, a committee of academic advisers to the German government said in a report issued in Berlin on Wednesday that the best outcome of Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU would be to keep the country in the bloc.
The pound barely reacted to the latest purchasing managers' construction index, which showed growth hitting a seven-month high in October. Political jitters have mostly overshadowed economic data in recent months
An equivalent survey of Britain's dominant services sector is due on Thursday.
Investors are also looking to Thursday's BoE policy decision and quarterly inflation report. Sterling's fall - almost 20 percent since the vote for Brexit - is expected to push the BoE to raise its inflation forecasts to show a bigger overshoot of its price target than at any time since it gained independence in 1997
Against the euro, the pound was steady at 90.33 pence.
(C) Reuters News

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