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Nigeria says working hard to resolve gasoline crisis

In a chat with Nigerians from all walks of life on Sunday evening during the stopover, the Vice President noted that the Federal Government was moving as quickly as it could to solve the fuel crisis and reduce the difficulties Nigerians were facing as a result.

How Jonathan’s officials, cousin shared 27bln proceeds of PHCN sale -EFCC

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has narrated how top government officials under the administration of former president Goodluck Jonathan shared 27 billion, part of the proceeds of the sale of Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) in 2014.

- Nigeria unemployment rate climbs up

Four out of every ten people in Nigeria's workforce were unemployed or underemployed by the end of September, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday.

Why is Jerusalem important, what makes Donald Trump's intervention so toxic

What is the status of Jerusalem? Israel set up its parliament in West Jerusalem when the state of Israel was proclaimed in 1948. The move followed the United Nations’ vote to partition Palestine on the basis of the British pledge known as the Balfour Declaration that paved the way for a homeland for the Jewish people.

- Nigeria's dollar reserves at $34.53 bln as of Nov. 24

Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $34.53 billion as of Nov. 24, up nearly 3 percent from a month earlier, central bank data showed on Thursday. The bank did not provide a reason for the increase in reserves, which stood at $33.58 billion at the same date last month.

Thursday, 30 June 2016

Bank of England's Governor, Carney rejects pay rise for 3rd year running

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, among Britain's best-paid public officials, declined a pay rise for a third year running, according to the central bank's annual accounts on Thursday.
Bank of England Governor, Carney

Canadian Carney, who earns a basic salary of 480,000 pounds ($645,000) a year and has a 250,000 pound annual housing allowance, has been a central figure in the response from British authorities to leaving the European Union.
The Bank declined to comment on Carney's reasons for rejecting a pay rise.
Median gross earnings for full-time British employees stood at 27,600 pounds for the year ending in April 2015.
Weak wage growth has plagued Britain's economic recovery since the financial crisis, and has been one reason why the BoE has been unable to raise interest rates from record low levels.
Carney is set to outline his thinking on how Britain's economy is coping with last week's vote to leave the EU in a speech due at 1500 GMT.
Last week's decision by British voters shocked global financial markets, sending the pound to a 31-year low against the dollar earlier this week and wiping $3 trillion off stock markets around the world.
Stock markets have since stabilised but many economists think Britain's economy is on track for recession, something Carney said was a possibility ahead of the June 23 referendum.
Carney responded quickly to the result of the vote, saying early on Friday that the BoE would do what was needed as Britain's economy adjusts to the decision to leave the EU.
Economists polled by Reuters last week in the aftermath of the Brexit vote expect the BoE is now much more likely to cut interest rates.
*First published by Reuters

Nigeria's Niger state to meet bondholders on debt restructuring

Nigeria's Niger state plans to seek bondholders' approval next month to restructure its 21 billion naira ($74 mln) worth of debt, its adviser said on Thursday, as it seeks ways to ease strains caused by a plunge in crucial oil revenues.
Nwankwo, DMO chief
    Niger, which lies in northwestern Nigeria and is home to around 4 million people, plans to meet bondholders on July 28 to approve an extension to its five-year debt due in 2018 to 2023 and an increase of its coupon from 14 percent to 16 percent.
    Several Nigerian states borrowed in the domestic bond market and from banks to fund infrastructure projects when oil prices were much higher in mid-2014. But as crude prices dropped, many states have become unable to pay bills or salaries.
    "The bond will be restructured by extending the maturity date of the bond by five years to mature in 2023, with payment of the principal amount still being a semi-annual amortized payment," United Capital said in a notice to bondholders.
    Nigeria's 36 state governments borrowed money this month from the federal government to augment their monthly income and cover salary payments after they deferred loan deductions for March.
    They also received financial help from the central bank and Debt Management Office last year to clear a backlog of unpaid salaries and other expenses.
    Niger state issued its bond in 2014 to fund infrastructure projects, including roads and the construction of 500 housing units, it said when it was marketing the bond.
    In April the federal government said nearly two-thirds of states were struggling to pay salaries despite receiving a bailout.

Nigeria signs $80 bln of oil, gas infrastructure deals with China

Nigeria has signed oil and gas infrastructure agreements worth $80 billion with Chinese companies, the West African country's state oil company said on Thursday.
Nigeria, an OPEC member which was until recently Africa's biggest oil producer, relies on crude sales for around 70 percent of national income, but its oil and gas infrastructure is in need of updating.
The country's four refineries have never reached full production because of poor maintenance, causing it to rely on expensive imported fuel for 80 percent of energy needs.
These problems have been exacerbated by a series of attacks on oil and gas facilities by militants in the southern Niger Delta energy hub which pushed production down to 30-year lows in the last few weeks.
Oil minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, who also heads the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), has been in China since Sunday for a roadshow aimed at raising investment.
"Memorandum of understandings (MoUs) worth over $80 billion to be spent on investments in oil and gas infrastructure, pipelines, refineries, power, facility refurbishments and upstream have been signed with Chinese companies," said NNPC in a statement.
NNPC added the China roadshow was "the first of many investor roadshows intended for the raising of funds" to support the country's oil and gas infrastructure development plans.
Earlier this week, NNPC said oil production had in the last few days risen by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.9 million bpd, due to repairs and no attacks having been carried out since June 16.
Goldman Sachs, in a report published on Wednesday, said a "normalization" in Nigerian oil production would put pressure on global oil prices and may mean prices will average less than $50 a barrel during the second half of 2016.
*First published by Reuters

Wednesday, 29 June 2016

Citi trades first naira-settled FX futures with Nigerian cenbank

Nigeria's central bank and Citibank on Wednesday executed the country's first naira-settled futures trade against the dollar, market regulator FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange said.
On Monday the central bank introduced an over-the-counter futures market on the currency, to help manage dollar demand, quoting the naira firmer at 279 to the dollar in a month's time and at 210 naira by April next year.
Dollars

The rate at which Wednesday's futures deal was done and the size of the trade was not disclosed.
The bank had last week auctioned $3.5 billion on the futures market to clear a backlog of currency demand after it lifted its 16-month-old peg to allow the naira to trade freely on the interbank market.
It sold $697 million in one-month futures, $1.22 billion in two-month contract and $1.57 billion due in three months, in order to clear a backlog of $4.02 billion of demand.
In the non-deliverable forwards market, the naira rose against the dollar on Wednesday, with the one-month contract quoting the currency at 283, converging almost with the spot market, which traded the naira at 282 at 1217 GMT.

Nigeria to raise 305-395 bln naira in 2021, 2026, 2036 bonds in Q3

Nigeria plans to raise between 305 billion naira and 395 billion naira in local currency-denominated bonds with maturities ranging from five to 20 years in the third quarter of the year, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said on Wednesday.
The debt office said it would auction between 105 and 135 billion naira worth of bonds maturing in 2021, 2026 and 2036 in July, 95 and 125 billion naira worth of same debt in August and 105 and 135 billion naira worth of the paper in September.
In its latest debt issuance calendar, the debt office said the 2021 paper was a new issue, while the 2026 and 2036 maturing paper re-opened previously issued debt.
Africa's biggest crude exporter issues sovereign bonds monthly to support the local bond market, create a benchmark for corporate issuance and fund its budget deficit.
Nigeria said it will borrow about 900 billion naira locally to finance part of the 2.2 trillion naira deficits in its 2016 budget.

Tuesday, 28 June 2016

Ghana says will not quit IMF austerity program despite polls

Ghana will not quit its current program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and will not compromise on targets set under the three-year deal for elections this year, the finance minister said on Monday.
"We remain optimistic about this three-year program and will ensure that all program reviews are successfully completed through to 2017, given the enormous benefits to the economy," Seth Terkper told reporters in Accra.
Ghana, the world's second largest cocoa exporter which also exports gold and oil, signed a three-year austerity program with the IMF in April 2015 to fix its economy, plagued by deficits, high public debt and inflation consistently above target.
Under the deal, the West African country will receive up to $940 million from the Fund as balance of payments support. It has so far received $228 million in two tranches.
However, markets fear a third disbursement scheduled for June could be delayed if spending overshoots targets in the run up to a presidential election in November.
President John Mahama is seeking a second term in what is expected to be a close race between him and main opposition candidate Nana Akufo-Addo.
"Ghana will not quit the IMF program, elections or no elections," Terkper said, adding that Ghana had drafted legislation to restrict the central bank from lending to the government to ensure it sticks to it.
Terkper said it would be presented to Parliament on Tuesday.
Ghana's public debt stood at 71 percent of gross domestic product at the end of 2015. Last week Nigeria cut gas supplies to Ghana because of unpaid bills.

Nigeria's Buhari questions benefit of currency float amid weakened naira

 Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari on Monday told a gathering of business leaders that he did not see the benefit of the naira's currency peg against the U.S. dollar being removed.
Nigeria's central bank abandoned the naira's 16-month old exchange rate peg, of 197 naira to a dollar, a week ago in an effort to alleviate the chronic foreign currency shortages that have choked growth in Africa's biggest economy.
President Buhari

The naira ended at 282 to the dollar on Monday but was trading at round 350 on the black market.
"I don't like the returns I get from the CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria)," said Buhari, addressing a group of business leaders that included Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, Zenith bank founder Jim Ovia and oil billionaire Femi Otedola.
The 73-year-old former military ruler, addressing the group at his official residence in the capital, Abuja, said the devaluation of the naira in 1985 saw the naira trading at 1.3 to the dollar, whereas "now you need 300 or 350 naira to a dollar".
"How much benefit can we derive from this ruthless devaluation of the naira? I'm not an economist neither a businessman - I fail to appreciate what is the economic explanation," said Buhari.
In a June 3 letter to Buhari, seen by Reuters, the central bank governor said he hoped the naira would eventually trade at around 250 per dollar, a level the president had "approved".
Buhari had consistently said he was opposed to the removal of the currency peg but, in an essay published in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month, appeared to back the adoption of a more flexible foreign exchange policy.
The economy in Nigeria, an OPEC member, has been hit hard by the sharp drop in global oil prices since the country's crude oil sales make up about 90 percent of foreign exchange earnings and 70 percent of government revenues.
Foreign exchange restrictions were imposed by the central bank last year in an attempt to conserve dwindling U.S. dollar reserves.
"What has happen to us now is that we have manoeuvred ourselves into mono-economy which led to the collapse we are seeing now," said Buhari.
*Firsst published by Reuters

Nigeria oil output rises to 1.9 million bpd due to repairs -NNPC

 Oil production in Nigeria has risen to about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), from 1.6 million bpd, due to repairs and more than a week having passed since a major pipeline attack in the Niger Delta, a state oil company spokesman said on Monday.
Militants who say they want a greater share of Nigeria's oil wealth to go to the impoverished Delta region have carried out a spate of attacks on pipelines in the last few months.
Nigeria, an OPEC member that was Africa's top oil producer until the attacks pushed it behind Angola, has seen production fall from 2.2 million bpd at the start of the year. Oil Minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu said in early June that output had fallen to around 1.6 million bpd.
But on Monday, Garba Deen Muhammad, a spokesman for the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), said oil production had risen to around 1.9 million bdp since last week.
"Production has increased because we are making repairs to damaged pipelines and installations. And we have not had any major attacks in recent times," he said.
The Niger Delta Avengers, the group that has claimed responsibility for most of the recent attacks on oil and gas installations last said it blew up a pipeline on June 16.
Last week, petroleum ministry officials said the government had agreed a one-month ceasefire with militants, but the Avengers said they had not agreed to a truce.
Muhammad also said Kachikwu was in China for a roadshow, which began on Sunday, aimed at raising around $50 billion of investment for Nigeria's oil industry.
*First published by Reutes

Friday, 24 June 2016

Nigerian interbank rate falls after banks rediscount debt notes

Nigeria's interbank overnight rate eased 20 percentage points to 15 percent on Friday from Thursday's close after some banks approached the central bank's discount window for short-term cash accommodation, traders said.
Wingwe, Access Bank CEO

The cost of borrowing had peaked at 60 percent for overnight lending on the interbank on Wednesday and eased to 35 percent on Thursday after banks resorted to rediscounting their fixed income instruments to get short-term cash from the central bank.
On Thursday, some banks increased their borrowing from the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) of the central bank to around 420 billion naira ($1.5 billion) in a bid to ease liquidity pressure, after the central bank debited commercial lenders for forex purchase at the new forex market.
The cost of borrowing at the central bank SLF window was 14 percent, but not all commercial lenders choose to resort to the facility because they are required to pledge their treasury bills or bonds holdings as collateral for borrowing.
The central bank caved in to ditch the peg on the naira to allow the currency to trade freely on the interbank market, abandoning its 16-month-old peg at 197 to the dollar this week.
On Monday, the central bank sold $3.5 billion on the forward market after it auctioned $532 million and intervened on the interbank market to clear a backlog of hard currency orders worth around $4 billion. The bank then debited banks accounts for the naira proceed, leaving the market short of cash.
"Interbank lending rates are seen dropping further next week because of expectations of cash flow from budget disbursement to government agencies," one dealer said.
Nigeria distributed 305 billion naira from oil revenue among its three-tier government on Wednesday, dealers said.
Half of the May budgetary disbursal will pass through the banking system next week.

Nigeria stocks end three-day rally as Brexit stokes risk aversion

Nigerian stocks ended a three-day rally on Friday, falling 1.4 percent as worries over Britain's shock vote to exit the European Union spread across emerging markets.
The main stock index, which crossed 31,000 psychological level in its previous session, fell to 30,624 points as investors dumped shares in the relatively liquid banking sector.
Dada, Anchoria chief

Nigerian stocks had rallied 8.5 percent between Tuesday to Thursday this week, after the central bank on Monday ditched its 16-month old peg on the currency to allow for a freely traded interbank market in a bid to attract foreign investors.
Investors have welcomed the currency float but many are still steering clear until Africa's biggest economy shows signs of recovering from damage inflicted by the exchange rate peg.
On Friday some investors were booking profits from recent gains following renewed risk aversion, traders said.
"(The) market is down this morning, negative sentiment from Brexit and some profit taking," one trader said.
Quitting the EU could cost Britain access to the EU's trade barrier-free single market and means it must seek new trade accords with countries around the world.
Top decliners on the Lagos bourse was FCMB group down 5.08 percent while Fidelity Bank and Zenith Bank each down more than 4 percent.

Central banks move to calm jittery markets after Brexit shock

Some of the world's biggest central banks offered financial backstops to soothe plunging markets on Friday after Britain voted to leave the EU, and some intervened in currency markets as they worried that the volatility could hit growth.


The Bank of England offered to provide more than 250 billion pounds ($347 billion) plus "substantial" access to foreign currency to ease any squeeze in markets and Governor Mark Carney said it would consider more measures if needed.
The U.S. Federal Reserve said it was ready to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines with central banks, "as necessary, to address pressures in global funding markets, which could have adverse implications for the U.S. economy".
"The Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks," it added in a statement.
The European Central Bank said it could provide additional liquidity and would protect euro zone financial stability, while the People's Bank of China pledged to keep the yuan basically stable and said it would maintain ample liquidity.
The shock referendum result dented Britain's economic growth prospects and sent the value of the pound down by as much as 10 percent to a 31-year low against the dollar.
The outcome also raised questions about the future of the European Union itself and European shares tumbled almost 10 percent before recovering some ground.
With memories of the 2007-09 financial crisis still fresh, central banks are concerned that market liquidity could quickly dry up, depriving the real economy of access to cash and financial instruments.
"The Bank (of England) will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward," Carney said, warning that economic volatility can be expected as Britain adjusts.
The British economy was already slowing ahead of the referendum and Carney has previously warned that it could go into recession in the event of a vote to leave the EU.
Ratings agency Fitch said Britain faces weaker growth and investment prospects while its status as a major international banking hub could be damaged as some businesses shift to the EU.
STABLER, FOR NOW
ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said markets were already stabilising after the initial surprise, and that panic was not justified.
Ten-year bond yields in Spain and Italy, up around 40 basis points in early trade, recovered most of their losses by midday.
But a former deputy governor of the BoE said it was not clear that the fall in sterling would prove to be a one-off adjustment that buys the Bank some time to consider an interest rate cut or other measures to cushion the economy.
"What could happen is that it doesn't stabilise and actually we get a real loss of confidence, big movements in funds despite the reassuring voices and the bank liquidity," John Gieve said.
"At that point, they have to look at other things like sterling support by using their reserves and buying sterling or some new kind of QE mechanism."
Officials from the Group of Seven rich economies held a conference call and issued a statement to underscore their confidence in Britain's economy and banks.
In a rare move for a major central bank, the Swiss National Bank openly intervened in currency markets to weaken the safe-haven franc, promising to do even more if needed.
"The Swiss National Bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to stabilise the situation and will remain active in that market," the SNB said in a statement.
Major Asian central banks were also said to be intervening. Traders suggested the Bank of Korea was seen to have sold dollars to curb the won's fall while the Reserve Bank of India probably sold dollars through state-owned banks to prevent the rupee from falling further.
The BoE has previously said it might use standing swap facilities with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the ECB, the SNB and the Bank of Japan which allow them to exchange currencies in case of market disruption. Those facilities could be used to provide foreign currency liquidity for banks in Britain.

EXCLUSIVE-Nigeria's Dangote shifts focus from cement to oil and gas

• Africa's richest man piling in to oil and gas

• Billionaire targets 2019 for oil refinery launch

• Dangote plans London listing by end of 2017
 Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, plans to launch Nigeria's first private crude oil refinery by 2019 while almost doubling his cement production on the continent by adding plants in eight countries as he shrugs off a regional economic downturn.
Dangote told Reuters the $12 billion refinery would have a capacity of 650,000 barrels a day, cornering the market in Africa's most populous country, where fuel shortages are a perennial problem.
Dangote

Until recently, Nigeria was Africa's biggest crude oil producer but it imports 80 percent of its fuel because poor maintenance means its four refineries never reach full output. Its current daily consumption is 260,000 barrels, according to the International Energy Agency.
A slump in commodity prices has hammered Nigeria's economy - along with many others on the continent - and raised the cost of borrowing but Dangote, whose business empire stretches from cement to flour and pasta, is pushing hard into oil and gas.
"It will be ready in the first quarter of 2019," the billionaire founder of Dangote Cement  said of the refinery. "Mechanical completion will be end of 2018 but we will start producing in 2019."
Dangote said the plant, which will include a $2 billion fertilizer unit, was being funded through "loans, export credit agencies and our own equity".
Some $3.25 billion had come from local and foreign banks, while the central bank had also chipped in. The IFC, the private sector arm of the World Bank, has lent $150 million.
Dangote also has plans for a gas pipeline through West Africa. Nigeria has the world's ninth largest proven gas reserves, at 187 trillion cubic feet (tcf), but loses half of it to flaring and re-injection.
Despite the new focus on oil and gas, the business magnate said he planned to build cement plants in Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Zambia by 2018. Another plant will open in Congo Republic by September, he added.
A cement plant in Ivory Coast would triple output to 3 million tonnes, up from an initial target of 1 million, he said, while two new plants in Nigeria would add 6 million tonnes annually.
"As at now, what we have in operation is almost about 45 million tonnes, so we have just another 40 million tonnes to go," he said, affirming an Africa-wide production target of 85 million tonnes a year by 2018.
FX CRISIS
The collapse in oil prices has hit Nigerian companies hard, with many unable to access dollars due to central bank foreign exchange restrictions imposed to prop up the naira.
The worst-affected have gone to the wall or shed large numbers of staff, but a study by Reuters of an 11-week period in March to May showed that Dangote firms managed to secure a healthy share of dollars at the cheap official rate.
Dangote said the $161 million bought during that period from the central bank merely reflected the size of his business and did not represent preferential treatment.
"We have been badly affected like any other company," he said, arguing that operational costs totalled $100 million each month due to recurring expenses such as the purchase of parts for cement production and running a fleet of 9,000 trucks.
"When you are talking about 20 billion dollars worth of projects, what is 161 million? One-hundred-and-sixty-one million dollars is my six weeks' need," he said.
Dangote's sugar refinery in Nigeria had reduced capacity by 15 percent as a result of the dollar crisis. "We ended up owing a lot of dollars," he said.
This week, the central bank removed the peg that has held the naira at the official rate of 197 for the last 16 months, leading to a 30 percent devaluation as the currency traded freely on the interbank market.
Dangote said the decline had pushed up costs.
"This devaluation alone, we have lost over 50 billion naira ($176 million)," he said.
"The gas, which is our main source of power, is priced in dollars. If there is 40 percent devaluation, your price will go up by 40 percent. Every single aspect of the production will go up by that percentage," he said.
Dangote also said he was eyeing a listing on the London stock exchange "within the next year or two".
*Reuters exclusive

Power Sector Loses 4,533MW to Gas Shortage

The Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) yesterday said it lost 4,533 megawatts (Mw) to gas constraints.
For vandalism of gas pipelines that resulted in the gas shortage and 182Mw line constraint, the electricity market would have supplied 6,387Mw to its customers on June 22.“On June 22 2016, average energy sent out was 1716 MWh/hour (down by 138MWh/h). The reported gas constraint was 4533MW. The reported line constraint was 182MW. The water management constraint was 0MW. The power sector lost the estimated equivalent of N2,263, 000, 000 on June 22 2016 due to constraints,”the daily industry summary NESI posted on its website yesterday explained.
But the document that our Abuja correspondent stumbled on yesterday said the generation companies produced power. “Kainji generated 224Mw, Jebba 314Mw, Shiroro 186Mw, Egbin 111Mw, Sapele I 50Mw, Delta 256Mw, Omotoso I 21Mw, Geregu NIPP 102Mw, Sapele NIPP 30Mw, Ihovbor NIPP 23Mw, Afam IV 103Mw, Ibom 90Mw, Omoku 34Mw, Egbin ST6 99Mw, Paras Energy 27Mw, and Gbarain 46Mw.
The remaining 12 power plants generated zero Mw on the day under review.
*First published by Nigeria Electricity Hub

Tuesday, 21 June 2016

Nigeria's naira holds losses after float

Nigeria's naira held onto its losses against the dollar in thin trade on Tuesday, a day after the central bank removed its currency peg in an effort to alleviate chronic foreign currency shortages choking growth.
Fifteen trades worth a total of $50 million had been made by 1220 GMT, most recently at 284 to the dollar - just weaker than where it ended up on Monday after a 30 percent slump.
Traders said they were holding off, waiting for either fresh central bank intervention or dollar sales from oil companies. "We are waiting for liquidity to come in through whatever means so that trading can continue," one told Reuters.
Emefiele, CBN governor

The central bank caved in to months of pressure to effectively devalue the naira in response to falling prices for oil, the country's main export, announcing last week that it would abandon its 16-month-old peg at 197 to the dollar.
Other major oil producers, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Angola, had allowed their currencies to fall much sooner after crude prices collapsed.
Nigeria's move has narrowed the gulf between the rates available on the official and black markets - though unofficial traders were still offering the currency at 345 to the dollar on Tuesday.
On Monday, the central bank sold $3.5 billion on the forward market after it auctioned $532 million and intervened on the interbank market to clear backlog of hard currency orders worth around $4 billion.
"We know it's not every demand that has been settled. Trading will depend on what happens after what central bank did," one trader said. The central bank had yet to provide details of the forward deals including the settlement date, the trader a
Adesola, Stanchart ceo
dded.
Traders said the central bank did not inform the market whether it was settling demand with spot or forward trades, creating uncertainty especially for hard currency users who require the dollar immediately.
The bank sold $697 million in one-month forward, $1.22 billion in two-month contract and $1.57 billion due in three months, in order to clear a backlog of $4.02 billion of demand, market operator FMDQ Securities Exchange said.
In May, Nigeria lifted prices of petrol by 67 percent to 145 naira ($0.73) a litre to eliminate a costly subsidy scheme and ease severe fuel shortages. The government then used an exchange rate of 285 naira to the dollar to calculate petrol imports, which economists believed triggered the currency reform.
In non-deliverable forward markets, the one-year naira-dollar forward were quoted at 349. The nine-month contract fell as low as 337 per dollar while the six-month contract traded at 327.

Monday, 20 June 2016

Pan-African lender Ecobank may close some operations

Ecobank is reviewing its expansion strategy following a decline in profits and may pull out of some African countries to focus on its most promising markets, chairman Emmanuel Ikazoboh told Reuters.
Ecobank is based in Togo and operates in 36 African countries, making it a rare example of a pan-African bank that has developed outside South Africa, home to giants such as Standard Bank and FirstRand.
But falling global commodity prices that have hit economies in countries such as Nigeria and Ghana have caused revenue to slow, profits to fall and triggered a shift in approach.
"The business model whereby we are just expanding and posting our flags (in different countries) has to be reconsidered," Ikazoboh said in an interview on Friday after the bank's annual shareholder meeting at its headquarters in Lome.
Ecobank is dividing its operations into three "pockets" according to their potential, said Ikazoboh, who is chairman of parent company Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI). ETI had $22.5 billion of assets in 2013 and employs over 20,000 people.
Ecobank's biggest operation is in Nigeria and there the bank wants to increase market share. It also sees Kenya as its pivotal market in East Africa and hopes to take advantage of Rwanda's rapid economic growth, spokesman Richard Uku said.
"In the last 'pocket' (of least promising countries) we really want to take a decision as to whether we continue to operate in those markets," said Ikazoboh, adding decisions would be taken within months.
Sources close to the bank said this could apply to some small markets in eastern and central Africa, as well as countries such as Sao Tome and Principe.
In addition, the bank's biggest shareholders, South Africa's Nedbank and Qatar National Bank (QNB) will increasingly drive business in southern and north Africa respectively, Ikazoboh said.
The downturn in oil and mineral prices has battered African currencies, slowed some economies and forced change in the banking sector. In one sign of its impact, Barclays said in March it would cut its 62 percent stake in Barclays Africa Group.
Ecobank's pretax profit was $205 million in 2015, down from $520 million the previous year, a result that CEO Ade Ayeyemi said was "unquestionably disappointing". The bank said in April it expected flat loan growth and revenue this year. It said on Friday it would pay a dividend of $48.2 million.
*Reuters exclusive

Nigerian black market naira rate firms as interbank trading begins

Nigerian black market foreign exchange dealers were quoting the naira in a spread between 325-345 to the U.S. dollar on Monday, firmer than 355 on Friday as new interbank trading started.
The naira slumped 23 percent to 255 against the U.S. dollar on the official interbank market which began trading on Monday after the central bank removed its currency peg.
Economists said the gap between the official rate and the black market should narrow on expectations that increased foreign exchange liquidity between banks would ease demand for hard currency on the street.

Nigeria's central bank says will clear backlog of currency demand through forward trades

Nigeria's central bank will clear a backlog of hard currency through currency forwards and spot trades on the interbank market, a spokesman said on Monday, after floating the naira.
"The central bank has resolved to clear all the backlog of FX demand in the country through spot and forward settlements," Isaac Okorafor, spokesman for the central bank said.
Bankers have put the hard currency backlog at around $4 billion as a slump in oil revenues has dried up supplies on official channels.

Nigerian naira slumps 23 percent after currency peg ends

Nigeria's naira slumped 23 percent against the U.S. dollar on Monday in tentative interbank trading after central bank removed its currency peg, Thomson Reuters data showed.
The naira traded just twice at 255 against the dollar, and less than $1 million had changed hands by 11:00 a.m. (1000 GMT), as dealers said they were nervous about foreign exchange liquidity under the new system.
Emefiele, CBN governor

Monday's rate was sharply weaker than the 197 peg the central bank had been maintaining for the past 16 months, then abandoned last week in a bid to alleviate chronic forex shortages.
But it was still off the 350 seen on the parallel market since a slump in oil revenues started hammering public finances and foreign currency reserves.
Naira market trading will close at 14:00 pm (1300 GMT).
Foreign investors and economists had called for months for a naira devaluation as the forex shortages choked economic growth and led to widespread capital flight.
The central bank said last week it would abandon the peg in a "managed float". The median forecast from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters suggests it will could trade on Monday as weak as 300 per dollar.
Africa's biggest economy, which contracted by 0.4 percent in the first quarter, faces its worst crisis in decades after the decline in oil prices since 2014 and last year's introduction of a currency peg.
With a likely sharp fall for the naira, Nigerian products will become relatively cheap and imports more expensive, which should stimulate the domestic economy but will likely light a fire under already rising inflation.
"The new system should reduce the shortage of FX in the economy and – in the long run – reduce strains in the balance of payments by discouraging imports and boosting export competitiveness," Capital Economics' John Ashbourne said.
"But the new system certainly does not mark the end of Nigeria’s economic problems."
Nigeria, Africa's largest crude exporter, has resisted devaluing its currency for more than a year despite other major oil producers, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Angola, allowing currencies to fall after crude prices collapsed.

Friday, 17 June 2016

Nigeria stocks, black market naira soar after FX reforms

The Nigerian naira firmed on the black market on Friday, while stocks posted their biggest weekly rally in 14 months as domestic funds snapped up shares following central bank currency reforms designed to attract foreign investors, traders said.
The central bank has said it will let the market set the exchange rate freely as of Monday, abandoning a 16-month policy of pegging the currency at 197 to the dollar, harming investment and causing the economy to contract.

The naira traded at 355 on the black market on Friday, up 2.8 percent on the day following the central bank's announcement on the currency reforms.
A Reuters poll found that analysts expect that when the naira floats freely on Monday it will trade at 275 to 300 per dollar.
"The success of the new exchange rate regime will ultimately depend on how effective it is in attracting more foreign investment and getting pockets of dollars hoarded on the domestic front back into the market place," said Cobus de Hart, economist at NKC Economists.
In the non-deliverable forward markets, the one-month contract, gained 3.45 percent to equal the record high of 300 naira per dollar hit the previous day.
Stock traders said domestic investors were buying shares at cheap valuations, hoping that a more liberal currency market and the recent stock-market rally will draw foreign investors, who have avoided Nigeria due to the risk of a currency devaluation.
The stock market, which has the second-biggest weighting after Kuwait on the MSCI frontier market index, climbed for the third straight day on Friday, to close 2.66 percent higher at 29,247 points. Stocks rose 7.4 percent this week.
But worries over where the naira will start trading on Monday and how an estimated $4 billion backlog of demand in the currency market will be cleared, still persist, analysts say.
Bank chiefs and treasurers were meeting central bank officials on Friday to discuss trading on Monday.
The central bank on Friday sold long-dated treasury bills at higher yields than in the secondary market to mop up naira liquidity before the start next week of open market currency trading, to curb speculation.
It mopped up 205.9 billion naira ($1.03 billion) worth of one-year bills at a price yielding 15.6 percent, the same level as inflation, which was running above a six-year high as of May.
Secondary market bills were trading at 10.81 percent on Friday, traders said.
"Foreign investors will need to be convinced that the new FX regime is sustainable in the medium-term and will likely also require higher yields before resuming the purchase of local debt," said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.
*First published by Reuters

Nigeria banks to set naira rate on Monday without c.bank intervention - banker

Nigeria's commercial banks will set the first exchange rate of the naira versus the dollar when the currency is allowed to float freely on Monday after the central bank abandoned its dollar peg, a senior banking source said on Friday.
On Wednesday, the central bank said it would float the national currency on Monday, but it has given few details on how the new rules will be implemented.
Emefiele, CBN governor

In their first detailed guidance, central bank officials told bank chief executives at a meeting on Friday that lenders would set the first naira rate to the dollar based on demand without intervention from the central bank, one senior banking official told Reuters.
A central bank source said that Governor Godwin Emefiele was at the meeting and confirmed that commercial banks will determine the market rate on Monday.
The central bank officials also told the bankers it did not commit itself to clearing up a backlog of hard currency estimated at around $4 billion but will intervene if needed, the banking official said.
He also said the central bank would open up licenses for primary market dealers beyond the initial target of eight to 10 participants that it had announced on Wednesday.
Bid-offer spreads for trading would be set at one naira, and banks are required to publish their buy and sell rates on a daily basis, the banking source said. The central bank will the evaluate performance of the new regime by December, he added.
Primary dealers can handle volumes of $5 million between themselves as the standard order size and can trade up to $1 million with any other dealer, the source said.
The central bank could not be immediately reached for comment.
*Reuters exclusive 

Nigeria overnight rate falls, cbank mops cash to boost FX reforms

Nigeria's interbank overnight rate fell 250 basis points to 1.5 percent on Friday from a week ago, driven by excess liquidity, prompting the central bank to mop up the naira at higher rates to support its new currency regime.
Banking system credit opened at 1.06 trillion naira ($5.3 bln) on Friday, compared with 401.72 billion naira last week, traders said.
The excess liquidity prompted the central bank to sell 205.9 billion naira ($1.03 billion) worth of one-year bills on Friday at 13.5 percent, compared with the secondary market rate of 10.81 percent, traders said. The bank had offered 78 billion naira in bills on Thursday. [nL8N19922F]
The central bank has said it would start a new foreign exchange trading regime on Monday, abandoning its 16-month peg and setting the stage for the naira to fall sharply

Nigerian central bank sets aside 500 bln for loans to non-oil exporters

Nigeria's central bank is setting aside 500 billion naira ($2.5 billion) for loans to non-oil exporters, after a slump in oil revenues led to the worst crisis in Africa's biggest economy in decades.
The OPEC member, whose economy shrank 0.4 percent in the first quarter, has been hit hard by a slump in global oil prices. It relies on sales of crude for around 70 percent of national income and 90 percent of foreign exchange earnings.
Emefelie

The central bank said it "will invest in a 500 billion naira debenture to be issued by Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM)" as part of a bid to diversify the country's revenues away from crude.
Nigeria was Africa's top oil producer until a series of militant attacks on pipelines pushed crude production to a 30-year low. The value of its exports, mostly crude, plunged 52 percent to 1.27 trillion naira in the three months to March from a year ago
It expects to nearly double its non-oil revenues this year to counter the effect of lost crude income.
"The facility is essentially designed to redress the declining export credit and reposition the sector to increase its contribution to revenue generation and economic development," the central bank said.
"It will improve export financing, increase access of exporters to low interest credit and offer additional opportunities for them to upscale and expand their businesses," it added.
The bank said loans for up to three years would be granted at a maximum all-in interest rate of 7.5 percent a year. Loans of more than three years will be granted at a maximum rate of 9 percent a year.
Much of the hard currency Nigeria needs to finance imports evaporated as the central bank burned dollars in an attempt to peg the naira at 197 to the dollar, which it gave up under new FX guidelines introduced on Wednesday.
The new market-driven trading regime is likely to weaken the naira. Nigerian exports will become relatively cheap, but imports more expensive.
*First published by Reuters

IMF welcomes Nigeria's decision to end currency peg

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it welcomed the decision by Nigeria's central bank to abandon its currency peg and adopt a flexible exchange rate policy, saying this was important to reduce fiscal and external imbalances
IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told a weekly news briefing the Fund wanted to see how effectively the naira exchange market functions once the new float system is put into effect next Monday.
Nigeria's central bank governor said in a letter to President Muhammadu Buhari the bank expects the naira to settle at around 250 to the dollar after it abandons the peg of 197 to the dollar it has supported for 16 months.
"I think the announcement yesterday to revise the guidelines for the operation of the Nigerian interbank foreign exchange market is an important and welcome step," Rice told reporters. "It will provide greater flexibility in that market, the foreign exchange market."
Senior IMF officials, including Managing Director Christine Lagarde, have urged Nigerian officials to allow the naira to fall to absorb some of the shock to the economy from a plunge in oil prices and revenues. OPEC member Nigeria is a major oil producer. IMF officials have said that Nigeria has not requested IMF financial assistance, but has been in consultation with the Fund on dealing with budget shortfalls.
"As we have said before, a significant macroeconomic adjustment that Nigeria urgently needs to eliminate existing imbalances and support the competitiveness of the economy is best achieved through a credible package of policies involving fiscal discipline, monetary tightening, a flexible exchange rate regime and structural reform," Rice said. "Allowing the exchange rate to better reflect market forces is an integral part of that."
*First published by Reuters

Thursday, 16 June 2016

Nigerian central bank "optimistic" naira will settle at 250 per dollar -document (Reuters EXCLUSIVE)



• President Buhari "approved" 250 naira to dollar rate

• Will take 3-4 weeks to clear forex demand backlog - central bank

• Nigeria in deep currency and economic crisis

Nigeria's central bank is "reasonably optimistic" the naira will settle at around 250 to the U.S. dollar after an initial period of weakness following a flotation on Monday, the bank's governor has said in a letter to President Muhammadu Buhari.
Emefiele and Buhari

Nigeria's central bank said on Wednesday it would begin market-driven foreign currency trading next week, abandoning the peg of 197 naira per dollar that it has supported for 16 months.
Foreign investors and economists have called for months for a devaluation as chronic foreign currency shortages choked economic growth and deterred investment.
The naira is expected to fall sharply when interbank trading begins on Monday, but the central bank said it did not have a target for the currency and the price would be "purely" market-driven. The naira was trading on the black market at around 370 to the dollar on Thursday.
Giving the first indication of a target, Governor Godwin Emefiele said in a June 3 letter to Buhari -- seen by Reuters -- that the central bank hopes the naira will eventually trade at around 250 per dollar, a level the president has "approved".
"I must assure Your Excellency that we are indeed reasonably optimistic that at some point the rate will settle around 250 naira," Emefiele says in the letter.
The letter, which briefs Buhari on the foreign exchange plan announced on Wednesday, says it could take three to four weeks to clear a $4 billion backlog of foreign exchange demand.
Buhari has for months said that he does not want the naira to be devalued, but backed a more flexible exchange rate policy when the central bank outlined its plans in May, without elaborating.
The presidency has not commented on the new regime, with Buhari's spokesman declining to comment when Reuters called on Wednesday.
The central bank could not be immediately reached for comment.
Africa's biggest economy, which contracted by 0.4 percent in the first quarter, faces its worst crisis in decades after the decline in oil prices since 2014 and last year's introduction of a currency peg, which prompted a large-scale capital flight.
With a likely sharp fall for the naira, Nigerian products will become relatively cheap and imports more expensive, which should stimulate the domestic economy but also lift inflation.
Buhari has previously raised concerns about the inflationary impact that a weaker currency will have on Nigeria's poor.
Nigeria, Africa's largest crude exporter, has resisted devaluing its currency for more than a year despite other major oil producers, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Angola, allowing currencies to fall after crude prices collapsed.
*Reuters EXCLUSIVE

Yields on Nigeria's local-currency bonds rise at auction -debt office

Yields on Nigeria's naira-denominated bonds rose across the board at an auction on Wednesday, where about 112 billion naira ($563 million) worth of paper maturing in 2036, 2026 and 2020 was sold, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said on Thursday.
The office said it had sold 50 billion naira of 2036 paper at 14.98 percent at Wednesday's auction, compared with 13.90 percent at the previous auction last month.
Nwankwo, DMO chief

It also sold 40 billion naira of 2026 debt at 14.40 percent, against 13.74 percent, and 22 billion naira of the 2020 debt at 14.20 percent against 13.24 percent.
Dealers said the yields reflected a rise in inflation, which hit a six-year high of 15.58 percent in May.
"Many investors were pushing for higher yields at the auction to reflect the higher inflation figure released recently, which was above the prevailing interest rate in the market," one trader said.
Investors' bids had demanded yields ranging between 10 and 17 percent for all the debt on offer.
Subscriptions from investors stood at 171.87 billion naira compared with 159.60 billion naira at the last auction.
Africa's biggest economy issues local bonds as part of measures to finance the government budget deficit and also help to manage liquidity in the banking system.
Nigeria said it would borrow about 900 billion naira locally to finance part of the 2.2 trillion naira deficit foreseen in its 2016 budget.
*First published by Reuters

Nigerian central bank made no new dollar-naira trades on Thursday, official says

Nigeria's central bank made no dollar-naira trades on the interbank market on Thursday but settled $13.6 million of trades made on previous days at about the naira's pegged rate of 197.5 per dollar, an official said.
Emefiele, CBN governor

The central bank said on Wednesday it would begin open-market foreign currency trading next week, abandoning its 16-month-old peg against the dollar and setting the stage for the Nigerian currency to fall sharply.
Dealers said they expected no interbank currency market activity until the new trading regime starts on Monday.
"Central bank is not selling any money. Those who want to trade can do that among themselves," the official said, referring to the volumes as "carryover trades" agreed but not settled before Wednesday's announcement.
Nigeria, Africa's largest crude exporter, has resisted devaluing its currency for more than a year even though other major oil producers, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Angola, have allowed their currencies to fall as crude prices plunged.
Currency traders were meeting on Thursday to discuss the new rules and will seek to determine trading spreads including circuit breakers, if any, they say.
"The rules are just a guideline. The practicality is totally different so people are holding on until Monday," one trader said.
Three economists estimated the fair value of the naira at between 280 and 300 against the dollar, although the black market rate is around 370.
*First published by Reuters

Nigerian stocks hit 2-week high after central bank sets new FX rules

Nigerian stocks hit two-week highs on Thursday, rising 2.6 percent after the central bank introduced new currency rules designed to attract foreign investors.
The main share index rose to 28,606 points by 1159 GMT, pushed up by a 3.05 percent gain in the banking sector, to a level last seen on May 31. Unity Bank rose 9.26 percent and Wema Bank gained 6.33 percent.
Stocks had jumped 3.17 percent after the new currency rules were announced on Wednesday.
"The market is reflecting a positive outlook for the banking sector in view of the new policy. Investors anticipate that banks would be able to convert the opportunity to increase profitability," stock broker Rasheed Yusuf said.
On Wednesday the central bank said it would begin market-driven foreign currency trading next week, abandoning its 16-month peg against the dollar, which has harmed investments and dried up banks' currency dealing.
The central bank previously pegged the naira at 197 to the U.S. dollar but the currency trades about 50 percent weaker than that on the black market. A slump in oil revenues has hammered public finances and foreign currency reserves.
*First published by Reuters

Senegal's farmers adopt new tool to boost harvests

Walking through his dry millet field, Alioune Djaby, chief of Sikilo village, waits for a sign that rainfall is coming.
Normally, he would look for clouds in the sky or birds singing. This time though, he's expecting a text message from the National Agency of Civil Aviation and Meteorology.
farmland

Senegalese farmers have long relied on traditional weather indicators, such as trees blooming or where birds set their nests, to manage their crops. But those have become unreliable as a result of increasingly variable weather patterns in the region.
"The overall amount of rainfall has decreased in the past decades, as the rainy season starts later and lasts for a shorter amount of time," said Ousmane Ndiaye, a meteorologist and researcher at the national meteorological agency.
In 2015 for example, the monsoon was expected in mid-May in southern Senegal but started three months late, in August.
That has huge implications for the country's agriculture, which relies on sugar cane, millet, groundnuts, paddy rice and maize. According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, millet production in Senegal declined by 38 percent between 2012 and 2014.
To remedy this, the meteorological agency launched a free weather information service via text message with the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security last August, after testing it with a group of 33 farmers for five years.
Weather updates are sent by text in French to farmers who have volunteered for the pilot programme in seven regions across the country. They relay the information to fellow farmers in local languages, as needed.
Extreme weather incidents like heavy rainfall or windstorms will trigger a text message such as "Forecast: heavy rain expected in Kaffrine in two hours."
The project is also underway in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Ghana – all particularly vulnerable to climate extremes.
'WALKING WITHOUT SEEING THE PATH'
Djaby and fellow farmers says they use the updates to make more informed farming decisions.
To test the service's effectiveness, Mariama Keita, a farmer who cultivates millet and groundnuts, allocated two hectares of her land to millet and peanuts for a comparative study.
She farmed half of each hectare using only climate information sent by text messages, and cultivated the other half using traditional weather indicators.
In 2015, the plot farmed using information received by text yielded 1,500kg of groundnuts more than the one farmed using traditional methods. She has now adopted the newer method on the rest of her land.
"We now see that traditional ways of predicting the weather just don’t work," said Keita. "With climate updates I know that if it rains tomorrow I can save my fertiliser for another day."
Djaby concurs. "When cultivating, if you don't have the right information then you’re walking without seeing the path," he said.
To broaden the weather service's reach, the meteorological agency partners with the National Community Radio Network – made up of 96 stations which farmers can also listen to on their phones – to broadcast weather information in French as well as local languages.
The meteorological agency sends daily weather forecasts – including marine forecasts for fishermen – to the radio stations and trains the presenters on how to interpret the information.
As of last August, 916 village chiefs and farmers had signed up to the weather text service which, with the addition of local radio stations, had a combined potential reach of at least 7 million people across Senegal – more than half the population.
"We've seen a lot of lives and livelihoods lost in the fishing and farming industries because of adverse weather conditions and poor planning," said Tala Dieng, president of the radio network. "This service helps reduce their losses."
Future plans to expand the service include issuing recorded voice messages on phones, so that illiterate farmers can also access weather information.

Wednesday, 15 June 2016

Nigeria launches market-driven interbank trading system -cenbank governor

Nigeria's central bank will launch a foreign exchange interbank trading window on Monday to boost the supply of hard currency in Africa's biggest economy, its governor said on Wednesday.
The window's exchange rate will be purely market-driven, Godwin Emefiele told reporters. The new system would help with economic growth and restore investor confidence.
Precise guidelines will be published later on Wednesday, he said, adding that the new window would have eight to ten primary traders handling minimum volumes of $10 million.
Nigeria has been suffering from foreign exchange shortages due to a slump in oil revenues which have crippled public finances and hit currency reserves.

Nigerian banking shares rise before new FX rule

Nigerian banking shares rose early on Wednesday before the central bank introduces a new foreign exchange policy, aimed at attracting foreign investors.
Domestic investors snapped up shares in banks, expecting the new policy will help generate foreign currency business, which had dried up under current currency policy.
The index of Nigeria's banking shares jump 2.50 percent by 1145 GMT, outperforming the broader index, which rose 1.09 percent to 27,327 points. FCMB and FBN Holdings each rose more than 5 percent.
The central bank announced last month it planned to abandon the naira's peg to the dollar, established 15 months ago. That policy has overvalued the Nigerian currency, hurt investments and damaged the economy
The governor of the central bank, Godwin Emefiele, will introduce the new policy at a news conference on Wednesday.
Traders said domestic investors were buying bank shares at cheap valuations, hoping that a more liberal currency market and a recent stock-market rally will draw foreign investors, who have avoided Nigeria and the risk of a currency devaluation.
"When we see the market pricing the new reality and the stocks de-rate to reflect the new profit base, we will let that shake out happen and let the FX find an appropriate level. It might well over-correct, which will give us an opportunity to buy," said Rob Marshall-Lee, investment director at Newton Investment Management.
Africa's biggest economy is facing its worst crisis in more than decade. Plunging oil prices have slashed government income, weakened the naira and forced the central bank to introduce controls to support the currency.
Emefiele said last month the central bank would adopt a flexible policy on the interbank market and abandon a de facto peg of 197 naira to the dollar. It will also retain a window for funding critical transactions, creating a dual exchange rate.
The naira was trading at 370 to the dollar on the black market on Wednesday.
Marshall-Lee says the currency may weaken up to 50 percent, which would erode consumer income and cause company profits to fall in the short term. But he hopes that a more liberal currency policy will help the economy to reset.
He said his fund favoured Guinness Nigeria, Nigeria Breweries, Zenith Bank and Guaranty Trust Bank (GT Bank) as they were more likely to weather the storm and see good future growth.

Ghana consumer inflation rises to 18.9 pct in May

Ghana's annual consumer inflation edged up to 18.9 percent year on year in May from 18.7 percent in April amid a slight increase in fuel prices, the statistics office said on Wednesday.
The West African country signed a three-year aid programme with the International Monetary Fund in April last year to remedy fiscal problems including inflation persistently above government targets.
Fuel prices at the pump went up 5 percent in early May following a recovery in world market prices.
"The increases resulted in higher transport fares which in some cases were passed on to consumer goods," government statistician Philomena Nyarko told a news conference in Accra.
She said housing rents also increased.
Non-food inflation rose to 25.0 percent from 24.8 percent while food inflation was 8.5 percent compared to 8.4 percent.

Nigeria's Central bank should tighten liquidity ahead of new fx rule -Razia Khan

Nigerian inflation rises by a surprisingly high 2.8 percent m/m in May, which has driven the y/y print to a multi-year high of 15.6 percent y/y, exceeding our expectation. A more rapid pace of price gains was noted across all the divisions that contribute to the index, although fuel, food and electricity were notable sources of pressure. This happened even against a backdrop of subdued economic activity, given the outright contraction in GDP in Q1 2016, and indications that oil output in Q2 is likely to be even weaker.
 The findings are broadly consistent with the Standard Chartered-Premise Consumer Price tracker which rose by a record 2.75% m/m in May  (see OTG Nigeria, Inflation Surges).  With core inflation rising as much as 15.1% y/y, the key question is what the policy implications of this print are likely to be.
 In our view, rising price pressures were likely instrumental in the authorities’ changed stance on FX policy. Nigeria’s fixed exchange rate regime had merely pushed activity to the parallel market, which is prone to overshooting, less susceptible to formal policy tightening, and likely played a significant role in exacerbating current price pressures.
 The challenge for the authorities is how to go about normalising the FX regime, and more broadly, activity – in their bid to resolve fuel and other supply bottlenecks that have constrained growth while driving inflation higher.
 Given where inflation already is, there will be a need for gradualism.  However, in our view, any moves towards meaningful FX flexibility will need to be supported by tightening, in order to restore some degree of credibility to policy.  This may well have implications for the timing of any announcement on currency flexibility.

Monday, 13 June 2016

Families and friends wait anxiously for news after Florida nightclub rampage

  • Islamic State says gunman was one of its "soldiers in America"
  • Families, friends await news on victims
  • Gunman's father: "Everything was normal"
  • Obama to get update from FBI at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT)
  • Trump, Clinton expected to speak about issue on Monday
ISIS fighters
 Family and friends of victims trapped in a gay nightclub by a gunman pledging loyalty to Islamic State waited anxiously on Monday to find out whether their loved ones were among the 50 people killed and 53 wounded in the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history.
The FBI and other law enforcement authorities were poring over evidence that could explain the motives for the rampage in Orlando, Florida, a massacre that President Barack Obama denounced as an act of terror and hate.
The gunman, Omar Mateen, a New York-born Florida resident and U.S. citizen who was the son of Afghan immigrants, was shot and killed by police who stormed the club with armored cars after a three-hour siege.
Mateen, 29, called emergency services during the shooting and pledged allegiance to the leader of the militant Islamic State group, officials said. His father said on Sunday his son was not radicalized, but indicated Mateen had strong anti-gay feelings. His ex-wife described him as mentally unstable and violent toward her.
Islamic State reiterated on Monday a claim of responsibility for the attack. "One of the Caliphate's soldiers in America carried out a security invasion where he was able to enter a crusader gathering at a nightclub for homosexuals in Orlando, Florida ... where he killed and injured more than a hundred of them before he was killed," the group said in a broadcast on its Albayan Radio
Although the group claimed responsibility, this did not necessarily mean it directed the attack: there was nothing in the claim indicating coordination between the gunman and Islamic State before the rampage.
The attack reignited the debate over how best to confront violent Islamist militancy, a top issue in the Nov. 8 presidential election campaign. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump were both expected to address the issue on Monday.
The shooting began just after 2 a.m. on Sunday at the crowded Pulse nightclub in the heart of Orlando, about 15 miles (25 km) northeast of the Walt Disney World Resort.
Some 350 patrons were attending a Latin music event at the club, a well-known gay nightspot in the city, and survivors described scenes of carnage and pandemonium as the shooter took hostages inside a bathroom.
Nearly 24 hours after the rampage ended, authorities had publicly named only 21 of the victims, half of whom were in their 20s.
Family and friends waited for news outside a center in Orlando where authorities were gathering details about people still missing.
Jaymie Glaspie, 35, was looking for her brother, Paul Henry.
"I've been calling all day, and I just went to his house," Glaspie said. "It's just ringing and ringing."
Maribel Mejia, 42, got good news about one friend, who sought cover during the shooting and escaped. Others were not as lucky.
"One is dead already," Meijia told reporters. "Six more, we don't know."

GUNMAN'S FATHER ASKS 'WHY?'
Mateen was an armed guard at a gated retirement community, and had worked for the global security firm  for nine years. He had cleared two company background screenings, the latest in 2013, according to G4S.
Despite Mateen's 911 call expressing support for Islamic State, U.S. officials said on Sunday they had no conclusive evidence of any direct connection with foreign extremists.
"So far as we know at this time, his first direct contact was a pledge of bayat (loyalty) he made during the massacre," said a U.S. counterterrorism official. "This guy appears to have been pretty screwed up without any help from anybody."
Authorities said Mateen had been twice questioned by FBI agents in 2013 and 2014 after making comments to co-workers about supporting militant groups, but neither interview led to evidence of criminal activity
Ronald Hopper, the FBI's assistant special agent in charge on the case, said Mateen was questioned in 2014 about his contacts with Moner Mohammad Abu-Salha, a U.S. citizen who also had lived in Florida and became a suicide bomber in Syria that year.
Mateen's former wife, Sitora Yusufiy, said he was emotionally and mentally disturbed, yet aspired to be a police officer.
Yusufiy told reporters near Boulder, Colorado, that she had been beaten by Mateen during outbursts of temper in which he would "express hatred towards everything".
But his father Mir Siddique, who saw Mateen on Saturday afternoon, said he saw nothing out of the ordinary.
"Everything was normal," Siddique told ABC News, saying his son was not radicalized. "He was just a regular person who went to work, coming back and take care of his wife and his kids," he said. "If he was alive, I would ask him one question: why?"
In an interview with NBC news, the father described an incident in downtown Miami in which his son, saw two men kissing in front of his wife and child and became very angry.
Mateen and his family regularly attended a Florida mosque. "Not everyone had a friendship with him. He wasn't a people person. He was not extremely friendly but he wasn't rude either," said Mohammed Jameel, 54, a worshipper at the mosque.
Another worshipper said she recently saw Mateen dancing at his sister's wedding, a mixed affair that was open to both men and women.
Sunday night, federal agents combed through Mateen's apartment in the Atlantic coast town of Fort Pierce, about 120 miles (190 km) southeast of Orlando, as numerous evidence vans sat parked outside.

HOMEGROWN ATTACKS
The attack in Orlando came six months after a married couple in California - a U.S.-born son of Pakistani immigrants and a Pakistani-born woman he married in Saudi Arabia - killed 14 people in San Bernardino in an shooting rampage inspired by Islamic State. The couple died in a shootout with police hours after that attack.
Obama was due to be briefed at the White House by his top national security officials including FBI Director James Comey at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT)
He said on Sunday the Orlando gunman's motivation was still unclear. "We know enough to say this was an act of terror, an act of hate," he told reporters.
Obama also repeated his frustration over America's lax gun laws.
Condolences and messages of support poured in from around the world.
“Our hearts are heavy,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a visit to China. “We are determined to continue living in an open and tolerant way even if such murderous attacks plunge us into deep mourning," Merkel said.
The shooting is expected to be a point of contention in the vitriolic U.S. presidential campaign. After the shooting, Obama postponed his first campaign appearance for Clinton, a Wisconsin rally that had been scheduled for Wednesday.
Trump, who has called for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States, said he was "right on radical Islamic terrorism" and called on Obama to resign because he did not say the words "radical Islam" in his statement responding to the shooting. He planned a speech on Monday about national security.
Clinton echoed Obama's comments calling the attack both an act of terror and a hate crime, adding that the massacre "reminds us once more that weapons of war have no place on our streets".
The most deadly attack on U.S. soil inspired by violent Islamist militancy was on Sept. 11, 2001, when al Qaeda-trained hijackers crashed jetliners into New York's World Trade Center, the Pentagon and a field in Pennsylvania, killing some 3,000 people.

Friday, 10 June 2016

Nigerian interbank rate drops as liquidity persists

Nigeria's overnight interbank rate rose to an average 4 percent on Friday, up from 3 percent previously, as the central bank's attempt to mop up excess liquidity from the banking system faltered.
Traders said the central bank failed to sell treasury bills at its open market operation (OMO) window twice in the week because commercial lenders were asking for higher returns than the bank was willing to offer.
The central bank however, sold 206-day bills worth 93.18 billion naira on Monday, and also retired 129.61 billion naira of matured OMO bills, leaving the system with more cash.
Total banking system liquidity stood at 401.72 billion naira on Thursday, slightly lower than 408.25 billion naira last week, dealers said.
"We expect rates to trade lower next week if the promise of the government to release capital project funding next week is anything to go by," one dealer said.

MTN Nigeria to list shares on stock exchange, settles fine with government

South Africa's MTN Group said on Friday it will list the shares of the local unit on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as soon as "commercially and legally possible" even as the telecoms firm reached agreement with government to pay 330 billion naira ($1.67 bln) as fine over a period of three years for failing to disconnect cell phone users in time.
The telecom firm was fined $5.2 billion by Nigeria last October for failing to deactivate more than five million unregistered SIM cards on its network.
MTN, Africa's largest telecoms company, has already paid 50 billion of the 330 billion naira owed. 
The relationship between MTN, the Federal Government of Nigeria and the Nigerian Communication Commission has been restored and strengthened," MTN Executive Chairman Phuthuma Nhleko said in a statement.
Spokesman for Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Tony Ojobo said  "I believe MTN has learned its lesson,"
"Going forward, what we expect is service providers in this market will play to the rules," Ojobo said.
Shares in MTN surged 18 percent to 146 rand after the announcement in their biggest jump since April 2000. They have shed 22 percent since the fine was announced.

Nigeria's flexible FX model to be ready in "short while" - banker

Details of Nigeria's flexible currency model will be ready in a "short while", the head of United Bank for Africa (UBA) said on Thursday after chief executives of the country's lenders met with central bank officials.
The central bank last month announced plans to abandon the naira's 15-month peg to the dollar which has overvalued the Nigerian currency, harmed investments and caused the economy to contract.
However, the bank has yet to clarify how the new policy would work, spooking foreign investors, long worried about getting caught in the middle of a currency devaluation.
Adesola, Ceo Stanchart

Phillips Oduoza, CEO of UBA told reporters after the bankers committee meeting that the central bank had received lots of input from stakeholders which was being studied with a view to creating a robust flexible exchange rate model.
"We want to make sure that we come up with a model that is very robust and comprehensive that would be able to address the major exchange rate issues that we have been dealing with," he said.
"To this extent we have got a lot of inputs from various stakeholders. I believe that in a very short while the framework is going to be ready."
Africa's biggest economy, which contracted by 0.4 percent in the first quarter, faces its worst crisis for decades after the sharp fall in oil prices and last year's introduction of a currency peg that put investors to flight.
The official naira rate is fixed at around 198 to the dollar. The peg has produced a black market for the currency and brought economic growth to a standstill.
The currency was quoted at 368 on the black market on Thursday. And it tumbled against the dollar in the non-deliverable forward markets on Thursday, as uncertainty continued over a potential liberalisation of the naira.
Three-month non-deliverable forwards showed the naira trading at around 278 per dollar, weakening 2.2 percent on the day, and the weakest since June 3.
On Thursday, Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun said the government planned to continue "engagement over the coming months" with international investors as it explores fundraising options following a non-deal roadshow in London earlier this week.
Money managers who attended Tuesday's roadshow said they were alarmed at the lack of any steer on what happens next in Nigeria's foreign exchange market, two weeks after the central bank announced plans to liberalise the currency.
*First published by Reuters

Wednesday, 8 June 2016

Nigeria FX confusion persists, damaging investor, business sentiment

A two-week silence from Nigeria's government and central bank on further details or even a timescale for naira liberalisation has left international investors and domestic firms anxious about whether a gameplan has been even formulated or agreed.
A government investment roadshow to London this week was professional and upbeat, according to money managers who attended. But they were alarmed at the lack of any steer on what happens next in Nigeria's fractured foreign exchange market.
Emefiele, CBN governor
Africa's biggest economy is facing its biggest crisis for decades as the halving in oil prices since 2014, followed by the 2015 introduction of a currency peg that put investors to flight, has produced a black market for the naira currency and brought economic growth to a standstill.
With the naira's black market value plunging past 350 per dollar - versus the official rate of 197 - and a major chunk of transactions now happening at the unofficial rate, inflation is at 6-year highs and the economy contracted 0.4 percent in the first quarter - the first such drop since the 1990s.
Fund managers had hoped this week's meeting with finance minister Kemi Adeosun and other senior officials would shed light on when currency curbs would be removed.
Many point out that little has been heard on the subject since the central bank's end-of-May announcement about ditching the peg and a move to use a different, weaker exchange rate for petrol imports.
They were little wiser after Tuesday's meeting in London's plush Corinthia Hotel.
"There was nothing on FX policy, which was disappointing given they are doing this round of meetings with investors. It was a straight bat - I don't think they have worked out the details," Standard Life Investments portfolio manager, Mark Baker, said.
"My feeling is the (central bank) felt pressured to make an announcement but have not worked out the finer details."
The central bank has declined to comment since the meeting when the shift to a flexible naira was first announced. The Tuesday roadshow was closed to the media.
Baker and other attendees said they were impressed with other aspects of the presentation by Adeosun, a British-born former banker, who outlined reform plans for a country where energy comprises 70 percent of exports.
But the naira dominates discussions, with investors unwilling to buy it until a devaluation is past.
"We are struggling to value the naira and the message we received from the finance minister yesterday did not indicate that we should expect to see a sizeable devaluation soon," Pinebridge Investments portfolio manager, Anders Faergeman, said.
Equity investors too are wary of additional Nigeria exposure in absence of currency convertibility, RWC Partners' James Johnstone said, noting the huge hit domestic growth and consumption have already taken.
Foreigners held $5.4 billion of Nigerian bonds in September 2013 but dumped them after the country was ejected last year from the most widely used GBI-EM debt index.
Nigeria stocks have fallen 6.5 percent this year despite a near-doubling in oil prices. Foreign share dealing was 34.4 billion naira in March, down 66 percent from a year ago, the stock exchange said, and more than half those transactions involved share sales.
And the value of capital imported into Nigeria plunged to $710.97 million in the first quarter, a 73.8 percent decline from year-ago levels, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
"Part of frustration of the situation is that if they did devalue they would trigger a wave of inflows into bonds ... that would bring dollars into the market," Baker said, citing 10-year yields at a juicy 14 percent.
President Muhammadu Buhari who spent his first year in office supporting the peg, has confused matters further by apparently giving his blessing to a flexible exchange rate but saying he remains opposed to devaluation.
LOCAL PAIN
Local businesses have been hit much harder by the uncertainty, with the central bank rationing dollars for imports via auctions and exporters required to sell hard currency through banks at the official rate.
That paralysis has been exacerbated by the promise of change but little sign of it actually happening, a top executive at a Nigerian commodity exporter told Reuters in Lagos.
"We heard post-MPC a lot was going to happen. If the central bank had a plan one or two days afterwards they would have released it. Post-MPC, they have created a lot of uncertainty," the executive said, referring to the central bank meeting.
"We know that a two-window market is coming but don't know when. We need a bit of clarity which should come as soon as possible."
Similarly, members of Nigeria's currency dealers' association (FMDA) last week said Emefiele's failure to detail plans showed he "does not understand the meaning of signals".
But any transition will be a tough one. A devaluation or a removal of curbs could cause a spike in dollar demand which would torpedo the exchange rate.
Exotix economist Alan Cameron estimates the demand backlog could be as big as $3 billion, or 10 percent of central bank reserves. That may be behind the dithering, he says.
"They have allowed this to persist for too long. The risk is they find themselves in a situation where they devalue and find themselves unable to defend the currency even at a weaker rate," he said.
*First published by Reuters


Nigeria plans to put up to $1.7 billion into capital projects in coming days

Nigeria's government will next week pump much of the 350 billion naira ($1.76 billion) earmarked for capital projects this quarter into Africa's biggest economy, the budget minister said on Wednesday.
The spending is part of efforts by the OPEC member to stimulate an economy that contracted by 0.4 percent in the first quarter of the year. It is going through its deepest crisis in decades, brought on by the fall in crude prices.
In May, Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun said 350 billion naira would be injected into the economy "every quarter until we stimulate growth".
"We expect ... the Ministry of Works ...(to) have quite a substantial release in the next week or so," Budget Minister Udoma Udo Udoma told reporters.
The cabinet expects that various ministries, departments and agencies "should fast track processes for the capital budgets releases so that the economy can be quickly reflated," he said, adding that the impact would be seen "by the third quarter".
Last month Nigeria's central bank governor said a recession appeared to be "imminent".
President Muhammadu Buhari signed the delayed 2016 budget into law last month. The record 6.06 trillion naira ($30.6 billion) budget triples capital expenditure compared with the previous year.
The government plans to generate 3.38 trillion naira this year from non-oil sources, up 87 percent from 1.81 trillion in 2015.
But with Nigeria's heavy reliance on oil sales, which comprise about 70 percent of national income, it is unclear how this will be achieved.
The budget assumes oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) at 38 dollars a barrel. But production has fallen to a 20-year low of around 1.6 million bpd following a wave of militant attacks on oil facilities in the last few months.

Delta Avengers reject Nigeria talks, blow up Chevron well

The Niger Delta Avengers militant group on Wednesday rejected an offer of talks with the government to end its attacks on oil facilities and also said it had blown up a Chevron well in the delta.
Attacks by militants on oil and gas pipelines in the southern Delta swamps have brought Nigeria's oil output to a 20-year lows and helped to push oil prices to 2016 highs on Tuesday.
Nigeria's oil minister had said on Tuesday the government would start talks with the Niger Delta Avengers which has claimed responsibility for a string of attacks in the Delta.
The Niger Delta Avengers rejected the offer of talks on its Twitter account. "We're not negotiating with any committee," the group said. "If the Fed (Federal) Govt (Government) is discussing with any group they're doing that on their own."
The Avengers said it had blown up a Chevron well called "RMP 20" located next to the Dibbi flow station in the Warri area in the Delta at 0100 a.m. local time. It has previously attacked Chevron, Shell and ENI facilities.
"The attack on Chevron's RMP 20 is confirmed," said local community leader Chief Godspower Gbenekema. "The place is on fire." Chevron, citing long-standing policy, declined to comment.
While Chevron is the third-largest oil producer in Nigeria, its biggest production streams are offshore, which has mitigated the immediate impact on oil output from the spate of attacks on its infrastructure.
A group of former Niger Delta militant leaders issued a statement on Wednesday condemning the actions of the Avengers and urging them and other groups to "re-consider their activities".
"We enjoin our brothers to give peace a chance, lay down their arms and accept the offer for a meaningful dialogue," said the Leadership, Peace and Cultural Development Initiative.
*First published by Reuters