- IEA raises 2015 demand growth forecast by 280,000 bpd
- Sees demand growth slowing in second half of 2015
- IEA sees higher 2015 demand growth than OPEC, U.S. govt
- Sees OPEC output staying high, lifts non-OPEC supply view
- For table on oil demand/supply, click here:
World oil demand will rise much
more than expected this year, the International Energy Agency
(IEA) said on Thursday, in the latest sign that the collapse in
oil prices is helping to boost fuel use.
The Paris-based agency also pointed to "exceptionally high"
growth in global supplies, forecasting OPEC crude production
would remain near May's multi-year high and boosting its
projection of supplies this year from other producers.
In a monthly report, the IEA raised its forecast for global
oil demand growth in 2015 by 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) to
1.40 million bpd, bringing demand this year to almost 94 million
bpd.
"Recent oil market strength of course partly stems from
unexpectedly strong global oil demand growth," said the IEA,
which advises industrialised nations on energy policy.
Oil prices have recovered this year after hitting a near
six-year low close to $45 a barrel in January. Prices collapsed
from $115 in June 2014 in a decline that deepened after OPEC
refused to prop them up and chose instead to defend market
share.
The IEA's upward revision makes it the most bullish on 2015
oil demand growth of the three government forecasters closely
watched by the oil market. The two others - OPEC and the U.S.
government's Energy Information Administration - issued reports
earlier this week.
Oil initially rose after the release of the IEA report and
later slipped. By 0909 GMT on Thursday, benchmark Brent crude was trading at $65.16 a barrel, down 54 cents.
As well as lower prices, economic recovery and a relatively
cold winter helped lift demand in the first half of the year,
the IEA said. The supportive impact of these factors could wane
in the rest of 2015.
"Recent months have seen a steady acceleration in global oil
demand growth, but due to the temporary nature of many of the
factors that contributed to the upside, annual growth may
subside in the second half of 2015."
SUPPLY STRONG TOO
The IEA also pointed to strong supply. Production by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose to 31.33
million bpd in May, its highest since August 2012, and is likely
to stay high in coming months, the agency said.
"Barring unforeseen outages, OPEC is likely to keep pumping
at around 31 million bpd during the coming months as Middle East
producers sustain higher rates to preserve market share and meet
summer domestic demand," the agency said.
OPEC, meeting last week for the first time since its
landmark decision in November not to prop up prices, kept its
output policy unchanged for the second half of the year.
This year's oil-price jump has been partly driven by signs
that lower prices will slow growth in U.S. shale oil and other
production with relatively high costs, such as a drop in the
number of U.S. drilling rigs operating.
But the IEA does not expect that process to happen
overnight. The agency raised its forecast of supply growth from
non-OPEC producers this year by 195,000 bpd to 1 million bpd,
citing an upward revision to U.S. data and fewer summer
maintenance shutdowns in other regions.
"Lower oil prices and a drop in capital spending are taking
time to curb non-OPEC supply," the report said.
"Despite signs of a slowdown in non-OPEC supply, notably in
the U.S., global production growth remains exceptionally high."
With forecasts of demand and non-OPEC supply both being
increased, the IEA said the market would require 29.4 million
bpd of crude from OPEC and inventories this year, up 100,000 bpd
from the previous estimate.