OPEC oil output hits highest since 2012 on Libya, Saud

OPEC's oil supply jumped to its highest in almost two years in September, a Reuters survey found, due to further recovery in Libya and higher output from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers in the face of sub-$100 per barrel oil prices.
The lack of any cutbacks underlines the relaxed view of OPEC's core Gulf members to oil's slide from $115 in June to $97 on Tuesday - a level they can tolerate, but which puts budgets in producers such as Iran and non-member Russia under pressure.
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries averaged 30.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, up from 30.15 million bpd in August, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
"Libya has increased production massively and if you look forward, OPEC is producing more than the (forecast) demand for OPEC crude in 2015," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. "This puts pressure on OPEC ahead of their next meeting."
OPEC pumps a third of the world's oil and meets next in November. This month, the largest increase has come from Libya, where supply is up by 280,000 bpd despite conflict. Iraq, Nigeria, Angola and Saudi Arabia also boosted output.
This month's output is OPEC's highest since November 2012 when it pumped 31.06 million bpd, according to Reuters surveys. Involuntary outages, such as in Libya, kept output below OPEC's nominal 30 million bpd target in earlier months of the year.
Iraq, like Libya, has also managed to increase supplies despite fighting in the country. Oil output rebounded due to higher exports from Iraq's southern terminals and increased output from fields in Kurdistan.
An advance by Islamic State fighters into northern Iraq has not reduced southern exports, but violence has hit supply of Kirkuk crude from the north and shut down the Baiji refinery, keeping crude output below Iraq's potential.
Nigerian output, disrupted in earlier months of the year, has climbed in September, and another increase has come from Angola where CLOV, a new crude stream operated by Total, is ramping up exports.
Top exporter Saudi Arabia, supported by Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, has boosted output informally to cover for outages elsewhere in the group. So far, there is no sign of any further trimming, according to the survey.
In fact, industry sources in Saudi Arabia have talked of higher demand with the approach of winter and return of refineries from maintenance - factors that would argue against cutting output. Sources in the survey said supply to market had increased this month.
Some OPEC members have voiced concern over the drop in prices and its meeting on Nov. 27 in Vienna is likely see a debate on whether output needs to be cut.
OPEC's own forecasts suggest demand for its crude will fall to 29.20 million bpd in 2015 due to rising supply of U.S. shale oil and supplies from other producers outside the group - almost 1.8 million bpd below current output according to this survey.
Iran on Friday urged OPEC members to make joint efforts to keep the market from falling further, but the Gulf Arab producers remain unruffled according to comments from oil ministers and delegates.
Iranian output was steady in September, the survey found. Western sanctions over Iran's nuclear work are restraining its output, although supply has risen since the start of the year following a softening of the measures.
Iran's budget needs oil prices well above $100, among the highest in OPEC, while the budget of non-member Russia assumes an average of $100.

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Kenya's economy increases by a quarter to join Africa's top 10

• Bigger GDP may mean government can borrow more

• Government wants to overhaul creaking infrastructure

• Revising economy size does not boost state resources

• Economy now estimated to have grown 5.7 pct in 2013

President Kenyatta

Kenya's gross domestic product was estimated to be 25 percent bigger after the authorities changed the base calculation year to 2009 from 2001, sending the east African nation into the continent's top 10 economies.
Economic output was calculated to be 4.76 trillion shillings ($53.4 billion) in 2013 after the rebasing, up from 3.8 trillion shillings ($42.6 billion), the minister for devolution and planning, Anne Waiguru, told a news conference on Tuesday.
That takes Kenya up to ninth in Africa's GDP rankings from 12th, above Ghana, Tunisia and Ethiopia but below oil-producing Sudan based on a World Bank table for 2013.
The rebasing exercise means debt levels fall as a proportion of GDP, a closely watched ratio, and could give the government some leeway for more borrowing to help finance its plans to build new transport links and repair creaking infrastructure.
But revising the estimated size of GDP does not change Kenya's ability to repay additional loans nor does it mean it has more income to spend on development in a nation where many people are poor, roads are potholed and power supply is scarce.
"This gives us a little bit of welcome breathing space ... not an opportunity to open the cash register,” said public policy and economic analyst Robert Shaw.
As with other rebasings in Africa, the move takes into account structural and other economic changes, such as new technology, and updates the base year for prices.
Kenya's GDP revision follows the far more dramatic rebasing earlier this year of Nigeria's economy when it changed the base year from 1990 to 2010 and, as a result, vaulted above South Africa to become Africa's biggest economy.
Kenya's rebasing was less pronounced because the gap with 2001 and the new base year of 2009 was shorter.
Changes in assessing agriculture, manufacturing and real estate accounted for most of the GDP rise. Technology and related fields are now treated as a standalone sector, taking into account a vibrant industry in Kenya, which has pioneered mobile telephone payments systems and exported the idea across Africa and beyond.
The economy could also get a further boost in a few years when commercial oil production is expected to start.
With the rebasing, economic growth was revised to 5.7 percent in 2013, up from the previous estimate of 4.7 percent, a figure that had been below expectations and was partly blamed on a spate of militant attacks and a decline in tourism.
MIDDLE INCOME NATION
"The new numbers are credible and they constitute an important improvement in the economic and statistical knowledge base for Kenya," Diariétou Gaye, the World Bank's country director for Kenya, said, adding that a World Bank team joined other experts conducting a peer review of the rebasing exercise.
Based on a debt figure of 2.4 billion shillings released in August after Kenya's heavily oversubscribed, maiden Eurobond, the debt-to-GDP ratio falls to about 50 percent from 57 percent previously, according to a Reuters calculation.
But economists said a lower ratio did not mean the government was any better positioned to take out more loans.
"Debt service capacity and export growth, neither of which is expected to be substantially revised, are much more important when it comes to being able to take on more debt," Razia Khan, London-based Africa economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said before Tuesday's announcement.
With a population of about 44 million people, the new GDP figure implies economic output per capita stands at more than $1,200. That would push Kenya onto the bottom rung of middle income states, according to the World Bank's $1,045 to $12,746 band.
A higher income ranking means it might not benefit from some aid designed for the poorest countries, economists say.
Conversely, investors may be more attracted to a nation with a population that has more cash to spend, although many investors have already factored that into their calculations.
"If you look at the kind of investment flow already attracted by Kenya, the implicit assumption is that investors already treated it as a middle income country," said Khan.
The new status and a bigger economy have no direct impact on the lives of ordinary Kenyans, who are frustrated by poor roads and services. "The potholes are still there," said analyst Shaw.

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Nigeria's SEC DG, Oteh re-elects AMERC chairperson

SEC DG, Oteh

Director General, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Arunma Oteh has been unanimously returned un-opposed as chairperson of the African/Middle East Regional Committee (AMERC) at the 39th annual conference of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) currently taking place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Oteh was acclaimed as Chairperson to head AMERC for the next two years at the end of the AMERC meeting held during the ongoing IOSCO meeting in Brazil based on the experience that she brings as well as quality leadership Nigeria has provided over the years.
By this election, Oteh is to serve on the Executive Committee , the highest decision making organ of the global body for the next two years. Also re-elected were Saudi. Arabia and Egypt.
In her acceptance speech, Oteh who assumed office in January 2010 as head of the SEC, the capital market apex regulatory body in Nigeria, said her election as AMERC chair was a demonstration of the confidence on her, her team at SEC and Nigeria as a whole. She pledged to be a loud voice representing the Region's interest and her commitment to ensuring that the Region would do its best to uphold the goals and ideals of the global body.
She said, "we believe that our work is very important to IOSCO and that it is very important to the market. One of the things we have achieved in the last two years has been greater inclusion and cohesion. This has not come from the work of the executive alone, but by the work of all of us.
"I am excited about the opportunity given us to lead is committee again for the next two years and we will continue to ensure that our committee is the best in IOSCO".
Oteh disclosed that there is an increasing focus on the capital market away from banking finance as banks are still dealing with the challenges of the global financial crisis adding that the challenge for the regulators is to raise an enabling environment that would not increase risk for the investors and operators.
"Capital markets are very critical to the economy of every nation. The capital market is really the answer as it does not only provide financing but creates the environment where the right products are available. We come together to support each other in enforcement, share information because we believe the world is global
"IOSCO succeeds because of co-operation between countries. In AMERC, we can focus on the things that are most important to us and it is heartwarming that we are making progress in our respective countries" Oteh added.
She stated that her priority would be to build capacity among AMERC- member countries and promote the integrity of the securities markets to engender investor confidence which are critical to the development of the AMERC capital markets and economies. Her words “ i will do my best and will continue to rely on your support to ensure that AMERC continues to grow stonger and stronger. We will embrace global best practice to ensur that our markets are world class markets”.
In her opening remarks at the meeting, the AMERC chairperson described the regional meetings as very critical because it is a forum for all members to share lessons from each other and address some of the issues that are most pertinent for the Region.
She described the theme of this year's meeting: Market based financing for global growth, A forward looking approach, as apt at a time when there is greater recognition in the countries and globally about the value of capital markets notably for job creation through funding, SMEs or large companies through fostering economic inclusion and also to meet the huge infrastructure financing requirement.
In his remarks, Chairman of IOSCO board, Greg Medcraft disclosed that the organisation is determined to build on the changes and the good work it has done in the past to ensure that markets can fund the real economy and drive economic growth globally which in turn he said, would improve standard of living.
Medcraft also emphasised the ongoing innovation driven complexities in production, markets and technology adding "we are living in a digital world and we have to stay above the game by recognising the risks early and putting measures in place to nip it early.
"Digital disruptions to business models is a serious challenge and it is important that we as regulators understand how to mitigate risks".

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Nigeria raises 114.4 bln naira in T. bills, yields mixed

Nigeria sold 114.39 billion naira ($698 million) worth of treasury bills with maturities ranging between three months and one year at an auction this week, with yields mixed, the central bank said on Friday.
The bank sold 21.53 billion naira worth of three-month paper at 9.95 percent, higher than 9.58 percent at a previous auction on Sept. 17. It sold 33.78 billion naira in 6-month notes at 10.10 percent, 13 basis points lower than the previous auction.
It raised 59.08 billion naira in one-year debt at 10.35 percent, the same yield the paper fetched the last time it was sold on Sept. 3.
Total demand stood at 181.44 billion naira at the auction, compared with 122 billion for the 3-month and 6-month paper sold at the Sept 17, auction.

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Nigerian bond seen rising next week

Prices of Nigerian Treasury bonds are likely to pick up next week after being driven lower by investors taking profits in the wake of naira depreciation and concerns over falling oil prices on the global market.
"We expect that some investors would come into the market at this level to take advantage of the low price after weeks of a bearish run," one dealer said.
Yields on the major debt notes have risen by as much as 20 basis points this week alone as offshore investors stayed on the sidelines, while some local pension funds cut their positions.
The bonds maturing in 2022 fetched 12.28 percent on Friday, up from 12.11 percent last week, the bond dated 2024 closed at 12.39 percent up from 12.17 percent, while the 2034 Treasury bond closed at 12.29 percent, from 12.23 percent.
Nigeria's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 12 percent at a meeting last week on concerns about increased liquidity and rising inflation in Africa's biggest economy.

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Nigerian interbank rate up at 10.50 pct after T-bill sale

Nigeria's interbank lending rates inched up this week to an average of 10.50 percent on Friday, up from 10.37 percent last week after a treasury bill sale drained liquidity, dealers said.
The central bank sold a cobined 200 billion naira ($1.2 billion) worth of bills on Monday and Thursday this week, to manage excess liquidity. It also sold 114.39 billion naira in treasury bills at a primary market auction.
The market opened with a cash balance of around 516 billion naira from government budgetary allocations, oil company cash call payments and matured open market bills, before settling bills sold this week, dealers said.
The cash balance was around 400 billion naira last Friday.
"Unless the central bank sells more bills we expect rates to remain stable next week," one dealer said.
The open buy-back rate climbed slightly to 10.50 percent from 10.25 percent, 1.50 basis points below the central bank's benchmark interest rate of 12 percent.
vernight placements remained unchanged at 10.50 percent, the same level as last week.

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Nigeria naira hits two-week high on cenbank intervention

Nigeria's naira hit a two-week closing high of 162.65 against the dollar on Wednesday, after the central bank sold greenbacks directly to lenders to prop up the local currency, dealers said.
The local unit closed 0.76 percent firmer on the day, a level last seen on Sept. 9, compared with the previous day's close of 163.90 naira. Dealers said the central bank sold an undisclosed amount of dollars to the interbank market.
The naira has been falling for the past two weeks, weakened by the impact of the decline in global oil prices and low offshore inflows into the debt and equity markets, dealers said.
Currency traders said Italy's Eni sold $18 million on Wednesday while France's Total sold $128 million on Tuesday, as part of their month-end dollar sales, which helped lift the naira.

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Nigeria stocks, bonds fall on naira, oil price worries

* Stocks down almost 1 pct so far this year
* Investors jittery over falling oil prices (Adds bond yields, quote, naira value)

Nigerian stocks fell to a four-month closing low of 40,537 points on Tuesday, as a weaker naira hurt by falling global oil prices dampened appetite for equities, dealers said.
The index shed 1.1 percent on the day to its lowest closing level since May 28, dragged down by heavyweight banking and cement stocks.
Shares in Dangote Cement, Nigeria's most capitalised stock, shed 1.73 percent to 221 naira, while Zenith Bank fell 3.64 percent to 23.80 naira.
Bond yields also rose as offshore funds sold naira assets, dealers said.
"It was a red day for the Nigerian bourse. We think the current negative market sentiment will persist into tomorrow's session," Vetiva Capital wrote in a note.
Yields on Nigeria's 2024 bond, latest addition to a JP Morgan emerging market government bond index (GBI-EM), rose two basis points in the course of two days to 12.34 percent, after rising 37 basis points over the past month.
The naira closed at 163.80 against the greenback, below the three-month low of 163.45 naira it touched a week ago, over doubts on central bank's ability to support the currency against a backdrop of declining global oil prices and higher demand for dollars.
Brent crude fell below $98 a barrel on Monday, dropping for the third session in four, as sluggish demand and ample supplies outweighed expectations of a cut in oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Other top decliners include the local unit of British drug maker GSK, down 7.69 percent, while Guaranty Trust Bank and FBN Holdings both lost more than 1.6 percent. (Reporting by Oludare Mayowa and Chijioke Ohuocha; Editing by David Holmes)

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Nigeria Oando doubles profit, plans increase crude production

Nigerian energy company Oando said on Tuesday its pre-tax profit in the first half rose 103 percent to 12.53 billion naira from 6.15 billion naira (37.53 million US dollar)in the same period last year.Revenue dropped to 194.55 billion naira compared with 280.32 billion, the firm said in a filing with the Nigerian Stock Exchange.ONando, which concluded the purchase of the Nigerian upstream oil and gas business from ConocoPhillips for $1.5 billion in July, said it had proposed a 0.70 naira interim dividend from its half-year profit and a 0.30 naira final dividend on its 2013 full-year profit.Shares in the oil and gas firm were up 9.5 percent on the local bourse at 25.93 naira by 1218 GMT.

Meanwhile, Oando said plans to increase its oil production capacity to 100,000 barrels per day over the next five years after completing the acquisition of ConocoPhillips' Nigerian assets for $1.5 billion in July.Oando Chief Executive Wale Tinubu said in a statement on Tuesday that production capacity was currently 42,500 bpd and that the company would grow through future acquisitions as it seeks to increase market share in Africa's top oil exporter.

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PZ Cussons sees minimal impact from north Nigeria unrest

PZ Cussons Plc, the maker of Imperial Leather soaps, expects minimal impact from the continued unrest in northern Nigeria, its chief financial officer said.Nigeria is the British soap and shampoo maker's biggest market, though it also sells in Ghana and Kenya. Africa accounted for about 42 percent of Cussons' revenue in the year ended May 31."Year-on-year impact is quite small but it just means that rather than growing in the north, the sales are down 1 or 2 percent in the north," Chief Financial Officer Brandon Leigh told Reuters.However, Leigh added that sales had been growing in the south and east of Nigeria, Africa's most populous country and biggest economy.Shares in the company fell nearly 3 percent on Tuesday morning on the London Stock Exchange.Insurgents from Boko Haram, whose name means "Western education is forbidden", are fighting to carve out an Islamic state in Nigeria. Since a military offensive began last year, the Islamists have taken out their anger on civilians in increasingly frequent attacks."Cussons employs 4,000 workers in Nigeria and most of those are in south in Lagos where we have two factory sites and also in the east where we have a soap factory," Leigh said.Cussons also said it was carefully monitoring the Ebola situation in Nigeria.Analysts at Investec Securities said that the "run-up to the general election in February, and trading in the more important second-half period, will be influential on full-year results."The brokerage has a "hold" rating on the stock with a target price of 386 pence.The company said that its UK washing and bathing division performed strongly, helped by the relaunch of the entire Imperial Leather range since June. Europe accounts for about 36 percent of its revenue.Shares in the Manchester-based company were down 1.8 percent at 373.3 pence at 0920 GMT. 

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Nigeria naira sheds 0.27 pct as oil price continues to fall

CBN Gov, Emefiele

Nigeria naira slipped 0.27 percent on Monday amid a shortage of dollars on the interbank market, as higher demand coupled with declining global oil prices raised doubts about the central bank's ability to support the local currency.
The naira closed at 163.85 to the dollar, below the three-month low of 163.45 naira it touched a week ago. The naira closed at 163.40 on Friday.
"Dollar demand from politicians holding their assets in hard currency ahead of elections next year has increased pressure on the local currency," one dealer said.
The central bank was selling dollars directly on the interbank market to try to prop up the currency, which has shed almost 3.5 percent this year, for most of last week.
On Monday, the local unit of Royal Dutch Shell sold an undisclosed amount of dollars to some lenders, which was not enough to support the naira.
The naira has "depreciated substantially" on the interbank market in the past two months, Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele noted during last Friday's interest-rate-setting meeting, citing risks from declines in global oil prices and domestic production.
Brent crude oil fell below $98 a barrel on Monday, dropping for the third session in four, as sluggish demand and ample supplies outweighed expectations of a cut in oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Dealers expect dollar sales by multinational oil companies as they meet their month-end domestic obligations to provide some support for the naira in the days ahead.

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Oil falls below $98 on sluggish demand, ample supply

Nigeria oilmin, Madueke

Brent crude oil fell below $98 a barrel on Monday, dropping for the third session in four, as sluggish demand and ample supplies outweighed expectations of a cut in oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC members, many of whom need oil prices above $100 a barrel to meet budgetary needs, will review the organisation's oil output policy at its next meeting on Nov. 27.
Many analysts expect the producer group to cut output in response to a recent fall in prices, but it is not clear how much impact a supply reduction would have on the market at a time of heavy oversupply and high stocks.
Lower Libyan oil output has had little impact on prices.
November Brent was 60 cents lower at $97.79 a barrel by 1200 GMT. U.S. crude futures for October were unchanged at $92.41 a barrel, ahead of the contract's expiry at the end of Monday.
"Sentiment remains predominantly bearish given downbeat demand growth expectations and plentiful supplies," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, London-based oil and commodities strategist at Russian bank VTB Capital.
"However, I think the downside is limited," he added. "The market is very sensitive to supply jitters, given that the risk premium is gone, and judging by the reaction last week to a fresh outage in Libya and OPEC comments."
OPEC's secretary general said last week the group could cut output next year, but investors' attention has focused on the gloomy economic outlooks in Europe and China, which have curbed oil demand.
Concerns over extended stagnation in Europe, that could pull down other economies, were highlighted at the G20 meeting in Australia on Sunday.

OPEC

Investors will look for clues on where demand from China, the world's second-largest economy, is heading from flash manufacturing PMI data due out on Tuesday.
In signs Western sanctions could affect Russian oil and gas production in the long run, Exxon Mobil said on Friday it would wind down drilling in Russia's Arctic.
Oil production in Libya has fallen to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), down nearly 20 percent from 870,000 bpd a week ago as its El Sharara oilfield and Zawiya refinery stay closed, a spokesman for the state-run National Oil Corp (NOC) said on Sunday.
Geoffrey Howard, North Africa analyst at consultancy Control Risks told Reuters Global Oil Forum on Monday that Libyan oil supplies were at risk and likely to fall in the coming weeks.
"Sustained high output levels are highly unlikely," Howard said. "All oilfields are vulnerable to politically motivated unrest," he added.
Fighting has intensified in southern Libya as soldiers and police clashed in the last few days near the country's biggest oilfield El Sharara. The field, which feeds Zawiya in the north, was shut last week because of damage to a storage facility at the refinery.

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Nigeria's Transcorp Hotels plans IPO to help finance new properties

Transcorp Hotel, Abuja

Nigeria's Transcorp Hotels plans to start marketing its initial public offering (IPO) from Sept. 24, aiming to raise 8 billion naira ($48.8 million) to part-finance the construction of two new hotels in Africa's biggest economy, its prospectus showed.
New hotels are springing up across Africa despite bureaucratic delays and poor infrastructure, seeking to cater to a growing middle class and increasing number of tourists and business travellers.
Transcorp Hotels' parent company Transcorp, which has interest in power generation, agribusiness and oil and gas, announced plans in July to expand its hotel business in Nigeria to tap into a growing market for business travellers.
The hotel company said it will offer 800 million shares to investors at 10 naira. The sale will last for a week from Wednesday and will be listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange on Nov. 5, the prospectus showed.
Two weeks ago the stock exchange said it had received Transcorp's application for the share sale. Transcorp Hotels will have a stock market capitalisation of 79.8 billion naira (487.4 mln) on listing.
"Over the next five years, the company will take a phased approach in developing high-end hotels ... as well as a convention center and apartment complex," it said in its IPO document.
Pretax profit at Transcorp Hotels rose to 6.12 billion naira in 2013, up 51 percent from a year earlier. It expects 2014 pretax profit to hit 7.45 billion naira.
The Transcorp Hotels share sale will be the second market debut in Nigeria since IPOs stalled in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, with oil company Seplat raising $500 million in April through Lagos and London listings.
IPOs dried up when the 2008 crash wiped more than 60 percent off the market, but index has since recovered in the past two years, gaining 35 percent in 2012 and 47 percent in 2013.
Transcorp Hotels, whose flagship hotel is managed by the Hilton group in Nigeria's capital city Abuja, is 88 percent-owned by the Trasncorp conglomerate, with the balance held by the Nigerian government.
The hotel company plans to use proceeds of the IPO to develop two new properties, which will be managed by the Hilton group in Nigeria's commercial capital of Lagos and oil city of Port Harcourt. It expects to complete construction by 2017.

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